Route to accident-free fully autonomous driving by 2025 presents drivers with new challenges

The period between the proposed rollouts of semi-autonomous cars in 2018 and fully autonomous cars in 2025 will present a huge challenge to drivers to stay safe and remain within the law, according to senior industry figures.

Some manufacturers, including Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Tesla and Volvo, are already selling cars with advanced ‘autopilot’ features, and more manufacturers are set to join them as technology advances. James Dalton, of the Association of British Insurers (ABI), said: “Automation could be the biggest breakthrough in road safety since the invention of the seatbelt and insurers fully support its development. However, we need to get there safely.

“The growth of features, such as automatic braking and lane assistance systems, may give drivers a false sense of security that they can relax while their car looks after them. But unless a vehicle is fully automated and able to respond appropriately in an emergency, drivers still have to be ready to take back control at a moment’s notice.”

By 2018, a significant number of cars are expected to be running systems that allow the driver to remove their feet from the pedals and their hands from the steering wheel for up to three minutes on motorways. At 70mph, a car would travel three and a half miles in that time.

Legislation that requires a system to shut down after three minutes, unless the driver manually resets it, is already in place. The driver will also have to always be in a position to retake control if an alarm is sounded, although the road-scanning systems used by manufacturers will only typically be able to look three seconds up the road at 80mph, giving them minimal time to react.

From 2021, the car industry and legislators anticipate that entire motorway journeys will be possible with a car in fully autonomous mode, without any input from the driver, while from 2025 the expectation is that cars will do entire journeys with the driver’s only action being to set the destination. It is the interim period between semi-autonomous driving and fully autonomous driving that has raised the most concerns.

Research by What Car? has already shown that a quarter of drivers would like to be able to sleep while an autonomous car drives them to their destination.

Peter Shaw, chief executive at Thatcham Research, said: “Automated vehicles have the potential to transform our roads, reducing congestion and crashes. The first truly automated vehicles, where the driver is able to hand over control in a specific situation, such as on the motorway, won’t be on the roads until some time after 2021.

“In the meantime, it’s important that we do everything possible to minimise the risk of crashes. The danger is that as technology develops, and drivers become more confident, they will start to use it in conditions it has not been designed for.

“Our clear message is that until 2021, drivers need to stay on the ball and observe the rules of the road. If you’re unclear on the functionality of any feature on your car, then check with the vehicle manufacturer or dealership.”

Talking about the implications of fully autonomous driving on the insurance industry, which is built around the expectation of there being car accidents, James Dalton added: “Automated driving will send shockwaves through many industries. Motor manufacturers are facing threats to their own business model from technology giants such as Google and Apple and need to move fast to keep up.

“There will always be a need for insurance and insurance is an industry which is used to adapting as new risks emerge and others fade. The potential prize here is a massive reduction in road accidents, leading to fewer people killed and injured on our roads. Insurers would love to see that become a reality and they are doing whatever they can to help support advances in automated vehicles.”

Dalton also believes there will be a large number of drivers who will want to remain in control for the vast majority of their journeys. "When I fly home to New Zealand I expect there to be pilots in the cockpit of the plane who are trained to fly it," he said. "I know that the auto-pilot will do the majority of the flying, but I expect the pilots to take over control of the plane should something go wrong. I think most consumers take a similar view with vehicles. Let’s also not forget that many people actually enjoy driving."

Dalton voiced his opinions on the dangers of autonomous cars in the short-term future: "In my personal view, the use of the term driverless cars is not only misleading but potentially dangerous. At least until the very long-term, a car is going to require a trained, competent and sober driver to oversee its operation, even if it is operating autonomously.

"And, of course, we all know from Google’s recent experience in Mountain View, California that autonomous cars can crash."

Thatcham has produced the video below to demonstrate what it thinks the future of autonomous driving will look like over the next nine years.

Our Verdict

Volvo XC90
The new Volvo XC90 costs from £45,750

It has big boots to fill and talented rivals to face. Is it up to the task?

Join the debate

Comments
7

3 May 2016
....semi-autonomous and fully autonomous cars launching - expected to be a seven years between" I think you meant 70 years and the delay will be because the tech won't be right, it'll be expensive and hardly anyone will want or need it. This fully autonomous story is %£$%" please move on

 

Hydrogen cars just went POP

3 May 2016
For the 2021 number to be quoted then the technology must already be here and under testing. You can see why cracking the motorway type journey would be massive appeal on a number of fronts. If you consider what is already on the market 2021 is believable. How far down the price band this reaches is questionable, but might be pushed through with legislation under safety and traffic flow banners. I'm yet to be convinced on the 2025 target on one simple argument roads would be handed over to pedestrians. Why would people waiting to cross the road when you know cars will stop/slow down maybe not a socially bad thing. Great fun for tenagers and car jackers though. Would you fancy that late night journey down country lanes.

3 May 2016
Right because in 2025 10 year old cars that arent autonomous won't be on the streets anymore.

3 May 2016
Why don't all drivers who'd rather sleep than drive get a ****ing train or taxi....and leave the roads to those of us who'd like to still enjoy driving, while we can....

3 May 2016
And that's the problem. Even the most advanced aircraft autopilots will "trip out" whenever they get a bit confused, in the expectation that a fully-qualified pilot will be monitoring the situation constantly and will be able to take control immediately. So what is the point of a self-driving car if you need to be ready to grab the steering wheel and/or stamp on the brakes at a moment's notice?

3 May 2016
By 2025 autonomous cars will be distinctive enough for pedestrians to spot. It is also quite possible that driven cars will be pushed out of the market very quickly through legislation, cost and the replacement of the car ownership model by on demand journeys. That is if my original concern can be solved how do you prevent obstructive behaviour on slow urban roads. I think it is right that pedestrian will regain the right of way. Why should somebody in the cold and wet wait for heated and protected individuals to pass, just because they can.

5 May 2016
Make no mistake - once driverless cars are tested and working we will be stopped from driving manually. The fun will be over. Cars will become miniature buses, which will take us only where the authorities allow us to go, when they allow us to go there. The whole scheme is a monstrous assault on our valuable freedom of movement and it's about time Autocar started leading the fight against it. Once it's gone we won't be getting it back.

I don't need to put my name here, it's on the left

 

Add your comment

Log in or register to post comments

Find an Autocar car review

Driven this week

  • Jaguar XF Sportbrake TDV6
    First Drive
    19 October 2017
    The handsome Jaguar XF Sportbrake exhibits all the hallmarks that makes the saloon great, and with the silky smooth diesel V6 makes it a compelling choice
  • Volkswagen T-Roc TDI
    First Drive
    19 October 2017
    Volkswagen's new compact crossover has the looks, the engineering and the build quality to be a resounding success, but not with this diesel engine
  • BMW M550i
    First Drive
    19 October 2017
    The all-paw M550i is a fast, effortless mile-muncher, but there's a reason why it won't be sold in the UK
  • Volvo V90
    First Drive
    19 October 2017
    The Volvo V90 is a big estate ploughing its own furrow. We’re about to see if it is refreshing or misguided
  • Kia Stonic
    First Drive
    18 October 2017
    Handsome entrant into the bulging small crossover market has a strong engine and agile handling, but isn’t as comfortable or complete as rivals