The inadvertent early release of the Autumn Budget details by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) - which compelled its boss to resign - was apparently not the only error the UK's fiscal watchdog made at the time.
When the OBR predicted that the upcoming pay-per-mile tax on EVs would reduce demand for them by 440,000 between now and 2031, it initially said the existing Electric Car Grant, plus raising the threshold of the Expensive Car Supplement (of £2370, spread over five years) from £40,000 to £50,000 for EVs, would offset that number by only 130,000.
But within a few hours, it amended that to 320,000.
Quite the difference. Can you really see either measure persuading a third of a million people to buy a type of car that they otherwise wouldn't? I'm not sure I can.
What I can see arising from the 'luxury car tax' threshold increase is manufacturers putting up the list prices of some EVs they've been keeping under the bar.
Even if the countermeasures are as successful as the OBR (eventually) predicted in attracting buyers for EVs, the industry is still looking at reduced demand for them, over a time when the proportion of new EV registrations legally has to rise from 28% this year to 80% in 2030.
The new pay-per-mile tax, then, won't affect EVs alone, because their success or otherwise directly impacts the sales of combustion-engined cars. If manufacturers don't sell enough EVs, they won't be allowed to sell as many ICE cars, unless they (or you) want to pay a £15,000 fine for every single car over the allotted limit.
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Truth is no one can predict the future, I feel we're be forced to embrace EV culture and lost car Tax revenue has to be recovered some how, pay per mile? well why should I pay the same road Tax as a 40K a year driver when I only do a 10% of that?
I'll start by saying I'm writing from Italy, but the trend in the coming years won't be much different in the EU either. It seems clear to me that the goal, in the near future, is to eliminate the use of cars for most citizens living in medium-sized and large cities. Mass motoring replaced by so-called "sustainable mobility" such as bicycles, e-bikes, cargo bikes, electric scooters, Uber and car-sharing services should be the future in urban areas. At least according to scholars and politicians. Will they succeed?