Will VW retro-fit cars be affected?
We don’t yet know. However, the cost of recalling models and re-programming them will cost hundreds of millions of dollars. The big question is whether this cost is worth bearing if, as seems likely, US consumers turn their backs on VW diesels.
So what cars will VW sell in the US?
In the short term, it will have to move to a petrol-only line-up, and rip up its entire diesel-based sales strategy. Another option is to rush plug-in hybrid powertrains, which VW badges as GTE, into production in VW’s two main North American plants, in Mexico and Tennessee. However, establishing a supply chain will take at least 18-24 months, according to Cardiff University Business School professor Peter Wells. The technology is still expensive, so VW’s sales will likely suffer. Another option is to build Audis, but their volumes are small in comparison.
What does this mean for diesels in Europe?
The importance of diesel — it was 53% of the EU market last year compared with 3% in the US — suggests lurid ‘death of diesel’ headlines are simplistic, at best. However, diesel is definitely under political pressure and the industry needs to emphasise its strong points much more firmly. Car buyers know their advantages and many will continue to buy diesels.
Are diesels complying with the latest EU6 rules?
As far as we know now, there is no evidence that EU car makers have ‘defeat codes’ to pass EU6. However, it is true that manufacturers have perfected multiple techniques to squeeze the last g/km out of the test, so a tightening of those rules seems wise. The test run by the EPA in the US is much more prescriptive and more difficult to influence by clever test techniques.
What about petrol?
So far there is no proof that ‘defeat codes’ have been used to boost MPG figures in the petrol EU6 test. The various investigations now underway must clear up this point.
What about problems with NO2 in city centres?
In real-world conditions, many EU6 diesels are not delivering the same mpg and NO2 figures recorded in the test. The test was never intended for this purpose, but it’s what we’ve got now. There is no requirement for in-use testing, except the UK MoT test, for example, which is only intended to weed out worn-out ‘gross polluters’. The EPA does in-service testing, which probably should be built into the EU test. But ironically, there is no US-wide test for cars in-use. It is a state-by-state policy and many, Michigan for example, don’t test.
A new test is coming to clear this up?
Yes – the WLTP — but Autocar understands that it will hardly tighten the regime and is unlikely to have much effect on MPG/CO2/NOx numbers. The international aspect of the VW scandal should speed-up the decisions still to be made about the detail of the test and its introduction date, possibly as far away as 2020. The car industry may well be wise to re-think its strategy, in the light of the scandal, to ensure the new test is robust in real-world driving. Otherwise, political pressure will only continue to cloud the future of diesel.
Read more on the Volkswagen emissions scandal:
Muller announced as new VW Group CEO
How the Volkswagen story unfolded
Reports suggest VW was warned of illegal software 'years ago'
How VW's 'defeat device' works
Prosecutors to investigate Martin Winterkorn
PSA Peugeot Citroën leads calls for tougher emissions test procedures
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