Western European new car sales could fall by as much as 11 per cent in 2010 when scrappage incentive schemes, according to automotive forecaster JD Power.
JD Power predicts a two per cent drop in sales in 2009 compared to last year’s levels, falling to 13.29 million units. Next year it says around 11.8m cars will be sold, levels last seen in the early 90s.
Jonathon Poskitt, manager of European sales forecasts at J.D. Power, said: “Next year there will be a greater contraction in sales because there will still be a weak economy, but the incentives that have artificially fed the market will largely be gone.
“France, Italy and Spain have a history of incentive renewals and a continuation of these schemes is certainly possible, but it will be the German market that will make a difference. We don't expect the German scrappage scheme to be renewed.”
The steep 2010 decline would be "payback" after sales have been artificially stimulated by government-backed schemes in major markets such as Germany, France and the UK.