Over 1.6m London motorists face having to change their car to comply with the £12/day ULEZ charge to be launched in 2021 — a much bigger figure than officially recognised by the London authorities — according to the car industry’s own estimate obtained by Autocar.
The 1.6m figure comes from the SMMT car-makers trade body, which compiles detailed registration figures for the industry. Its figure includes cars inside the ULEZ zone as well as the outer London Boroughs, many of which would normally be driven inside the zone.
Breaking down the SMMT figures, it says 782,439 Euro 0-5 diesels and 858,018 Euro 0-3 petrols are registered in the Greater London area.
TfL has provided Autocar with 2016 figures for the cars with the same emissions categories - 321k diesels and 255k petrols – a total of 576k.
The approximate 1m difference between the two is likely to represent the number of cars in the Greater London area — inside the M25 — many of which can be expected to venture into the ULEZ area putting pressure on their owners to change to more modern cars.
Breaking down its figures for the 2016 ‘Greater London Motorparc’, the SMMT says that 782,439 diesels and 858,018 petrols will be hit by the new rules which single out Euro 0-5 diesels and Euro 0-3 petrols for a £12/day charge.
Whereas TfL believes that just 321k diesels and 255k petrols will be affected – a total of 576k.
If accurate, the large SMMT figure suggests a staggeringly rapid changeover will wipe out huge numbers of otherwise serviceable older cars and ‘young classics’ on London’s roads over the next three years.