Road to 2030: The state of today's technology, and what's needed for the future

How good are today's electric motors and power electronics?

The latest breed of AC brushless motors (electric machines) typically have a peak efficiency of around 95%. That means 95% of the electricity fed to the machine is converted into torque and only 5% disappears through heat, friction and electrical losses. The same is true of the inverters that turn DC current from the battery into AC current for the machine by electronic switching. They typically run at between 95% and 100% efficiency, but it’s getting better as manufacturers pay more attention to the finer points of electric machine and power electronics design. An example is the use of hairpin windings (tightly packed strips of copper) replacing traditional coils of wire to make easier-to-manufacture, smaller motors. Traction inverters, which control an EV motor, are under scrutiny too, and new emerging designs are smaller, lighter and more powerful.

What has Formula E taught us?

Formula E cars essentially use the same type of lithium ion battery, inverter, motor and transmission technology as any road-going EV, and every car genuinely is a rolling research tool for getting the very best out of each part of the system. In Formula E, companies developing the technology are from the mainstream and include semi-conductor companies, software developers, charging network companies (like ABB, a major series sponsor) and well-known partners such as Bosch, so the acquisition of knowledge is valuable.

Gen3 cars (2022/23 season) will be spectacularly advanced, with the rules including 600kW fast-charging during pit stops and qualifying/attack mode power of 350kW. Regenerative braking will produce 600kW split between front and rear axles.

How much performance (power and range) can be squeezed out of batteries and how to develop the software algorithms to do that, thermal management of the entire electrical system, improvements in drive motor power and efficiency and the software controlling them, plus improved inverter and semi-conductor design, including the motor control software that goes with it, are all useful for road-going EVs.

Is there a future for synthetic fuels? Some say they can be carbon-negative. Is that true?

It’s no secret that the quickest way to reduce the CO2 emissions across an entire fleet (like all the vehicles in a country or the world) is to change the fuel in existing vehicles. Combustion engine ban on new cars or not, conventional cars will be around for a long time yet, and there are 1.4 billion of them worldwide. Biofuel and synthetic fuel can both reduce CO2 but are quite different things. Ethanol (blended with petrol) is an alcohol made from the fermentation of crops, while biodiesel is made from a variety of sources including vegetable oils, used cooking oil and fats. Petrol blended with 5% ethanol (E5) and diesel with 7% biodiesel (B7) is already on sale in the UK and E10 petrol is due to be introduced this year. Sustainable biofuel reduces CO2 simply by replacing fossil fuel to reduce tailpipe emissions, but that relies on biofuel production and distribution being carbon-neutral.

Synthetic fuel is made from hydrogen and carbon combined to produce synthetic versions of petrol, diesel or natural gas. The source of carbon can be atmospheric CO2 or CO2 captured from industrial processes. Its carbon-neutrality assumes the energy used comes from sustainable sources, but it’s generally thought that the carbon footprint of synthetic fuel can be far more transparent than that of biofuels. The major downside of synthetic fuels is the high cost, so kick-starting serious production of it in a hurry would probably require legislation and subsidies.

Can hydrogen fuel cell tech be useful in nine years' time?

It’s such an elegant solution, using the world’s most abundant element (hydrogen) to generate electricity without any toxic emissions. Yet despite several decades of development, hydrogen fuel cell technology for cars is still waiting in the wings. That could be about to change, though, because energy companies throughout Europe, including National Grid, are planning Europe-wide hydrogen networks to deliver clean energy. The lack of hydrogen filling stations has been a barrier to launching fuel cell electric vehicles, but the use of hydrogen generally in energy networks might help change that. Significant numbers of FCEVs in the UK by 2030, though, is unlikely.

How are batteries recycled at the end of their life?

The bad news is that although lithium ion EV batteries are robust and can be reused in secondary applications like energy storage, the chemical and mineral materials, such as lithium, manganese, nickel and cobalt, aren’t easy or cost-effective to recycle. Current EU regulations only require 50% of a battery’s weight to be recycled, which covers the basic parts like the casing, plastics, aluminium and copper, but that will have to be addressed as battery production gets into its stride.

Is there a concern about mining and processing rare earth metals?

Yes. Think about it. Why replace an unsustainable technology (fossil fuel-based powertrains) with another unsustainable technology? There are 17 rare earth elements, and although not all are that rare, with worldwide reserves of about 120 million tonnes, their extraction involves toxic processes. Availability is questionable, too. The largest reserves and mining operations are in China, but when it stopped exports in 2010 for a time, prices rocketed. Neodymium is the key rare earth element used to make the permanent magnets in permanent magnet electric motors, the favourite choice for EVs for ease of control and high power and efficiency.

What will constitute substantial EV range? Will 'self-charging' hybrids persist?

Range anxiety is touted as being one of the biggest concerns potential buyers have over switching to an EV, but how much range is enough? EVs can already compete with conventional cars for range, but ultimately range comes down to battery cost, and today there’s still a substantial price penalty for that. A range of 250-300 miles is becoming commonplace and adequate for most drivers, but not for those doing serious motorway mileage.