The UK's promised ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars has been confirmed, and it will come 10 years sooner than the date originally announced three years ago.
In effect, the run-in period has been halved, which presents a huge challenge for the entire motoring world: car designers, makers, retailers, owners and drivers.
Despite this – and the fact that in our recent submission to the government, we argued for a 2038 cut-off – Autocar enthusiastically welcomes the rapid advance of the electric age. We love clean air. We fear climate change. We already know fantastic electric cars can be built and we look forward to owning and driving them.
We especially support the decision (for which we argued) to allow some hybrid cars to be sold for a further five years, to accommodate high-mileage drivers while battery and infrastructure progress catches up with real-world and long-distance motorists’ demands.
We note also that the Prime Minister’s 10-point announcement on electrification includes what appears to be a game-changing £12 billion investment in a “green industrial revolution”, which must surely promise many new jobs and an expanded electrification industry, provided of course that the inevitable changes to existing industry don't eliminate too many existing jobs. Who in 2030 will need, for instance, a gearbox factory?
However, there are many scary challenges. Even Andy Eastlake, the managing director of the Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership (whose demands have been mainly met by Boris Johnson’s 10-point plan) warns that we “shouldn’t underestimate the scale of the challenge ahead”. The real work, he says, starts now.
So far, individual manufacturers have been mainly mute on the changes and their effects, although their collective body, the SMMT, called them “extremely concerning” while issuing a broad welcome. BMW has given voice, noting that the UK is only one of its 140 markets and somewhat of a lone voice, but it expects to be well able to supply UK-compliant cars when the law changes.
Autocar’s support for the once-a-century developments is strong but contingent on a number of important factors:
(1) The emergence of an enlightened ministerial organisation to support and encourage the industry and market that must deliver.
(2) The drafting of imaginative inducements both to manufacturers and motorists, rather than penalties for those who are seen to drag their feet.
Join the debate
Add your comment
So, it's twenty years then, till most cars on the road are EV or whatever powered?
2030 onwards when you can still buy hybrids, even non plug-ins, going to buy a big site and stockpile Toyotas, you can still sell 'used' non electric cars after 2035 its just a new sales ban. Post 2035 start selling my 'as new' used stock at very profitable premium prices.
Who wants in with me?
Actually on a serious note, surely an industry of importing 'used' ICE cars from abroad will develop, especially from China. manufacturers will simply move new cars through token ownership so they can be sold as used. Like the ban on traditional lightbulbs, you can easily still buy them everywhere sold as 'heavy duty' industrial bulbs when of course they are just bulbs.
Or perhaps we will become like Cuba, an entire new industry of keeping old cars running will develop, could be a good era to run a garage.2045 and alongside kids on antigravity hoverboards will be people still driving a restored 1.8 Mondeo.
what happens when
The studies come through showing the breakeven point on pollution for an electric car is over 100000 miles in China and about 50k to 60k miles in Europe,so likely private motorists could be polluting more in the world than i.c.e. cars or hybrids.Will it be the diesel fiasco all over again?
answer probably yes more emphisis should be on lpg,hydrogen and solid state batteries cant see the current ev's lasting more than 5 to 10 years ,they will be obsolete.
@ Ski Kid, interesting point
@ Ski Kid, interesting point about breakeven point on pollution for an electric car being around 50k to 60k miles. I remember reading something along these lines about a couple of universities conductingstudies which came to similar conclusions.
Now if you consider many people, especially those who go for the lease option, replace their cars with new ones every three years and the vast majority of them do not exceed more than say 60k miles in those three years, you do wonder how much more environmentally friendly EVs will be in overall terms.
Of course those who buy the cars secondhand and go on to do more than 60k miles, should see a benefit in comparative polution levels.