Currently reading: Tesla compact hatch to rival Volkswagen ID
Compact Tesla will be on sale in 2022 as VW ID rival but at a significantly lower price
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4 mins read
10 August 2018

Tesla is likely to build a compact electric car “within the next five years”, according to mercurial company boss Elon Musk.

Although the company is still struggling to get fully on top of production of its Model 3, this late-2022 rival to Volkswagen’s upcoming ID is probably the key to Tesla fully establishing itself over the longer term as a global car manufacturer.

The compact Tesla is scheduled to be made in the new Shanghai facility announced by the company last week, alongside the forthcoming Model Y crossover. The factory’s production capacity of 500,000 cars per year suggests that Tesla expects the two models to have significant market potential.

Comment: Tesla is idea rich, time poor

Tesla will arrive relatively late to the compact EV game – Volkswagen’s ID will start rolling out of factories in 2020 – but with what it expects to be a significant competitive advantage: the lower cost of its home-grown battery packs.

Tesla, along with partner Panasonic, is convinced it has an important lead over the opposition when it comes to the cost of producing batteries. In the world of EV manufacturing, this is the main issue that car makers around the globe are struggling to address.

It’s expected that the ID hatchback will cost around £27,000 when it goes on sale late next year, with its battery packs costing about €200 per kWh (around £175 at current exchange rates). The entry-level Volkswagen is expected to have a 60kWh battery, resulting in a pack that could cost as much as €12,000 (about £10,600) per car. That remains a very significant sum compared with the factory cost of a conventional petrol engine and automatic gearbox.

Tesla compact hatchback to launch within five years

According to research by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, mainstream battery makers will hit the magic €100 per kWh by 2025. This price point is key because it’s the level at which industry experts believe the EV revolution can really take off.

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However, Tesla and Panasonic are expected to reach €100 per kWh by 2020. The upshot is that a Golf-sized Tesla launched at the tail end of 2022 could have a €70-per-kWh battery, allowing the production of a 60kWh pack that costs just €4200 (approximately £3700).

If these medium-term projections prove to be accurate, then Musk has good reason to be optimistic about Tesla being able to offer a significant price advantage over mass makers within his five-year time frame. But before Tesla can make a potentially genuinely affordable EV, the company needs to finally nail down the Model 3 production process and prosper.

The struggle of the Fremont factory to consistently reach the initial ‘take-off’ speed of 5000 Model 3s every week by June 2018 rattled some investors.

However, building the new compact Tesla at a brand-new Chinese facility makes sense because this is where an affordable EV would have most market traction.

Indeed, China is already the largest market for EVs, steered strongly by national and local government and the need to address pollution in Chinese cities.

As Autocar revealed (23 May), Tesla registered a new company in Shanghai called Tesla (Shanghai) Co Ltd in May. This new factory is likely to be less of an experiment than the highly robotised Model 3 line in California and its construction and organisation will be greatly aided by China’s now world-class automotive manufacturing capabilities.

Funding this plant will be a serious challenge but building a factory in China is likely to be a quicker and less complex process than building one in the US or western Europe.

Another potential technical advantage Tesla has over its mass-market competition is the company’s new ‘flex circuit’ technology. Expected first in the Model Y crossover, flex circuits are extremely thin conductive elements sandwiched between very thin flexible plastic mouldings.

As Autocar has reported, the Model Y’s new flex circuits could use a wiring loom length of just 100 metres. This is in marked contrast to the current Model X, which has around 3km of wiring. Even the Model 3 has 1.5km of wiring.

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Applying this technology to the compact Tesla would give the model another significant factory cost advantage when it arrives in 2022.

How Tesla will expand its line-up:

Alongside Tesla’s existing cars, the Model S, Model X and Model 3, the following will arrive in the next four years, according to Musk’s plans.

TRACTOR UNIT - 2019

Pre-orders for the lorry are already open. It is claimed to have a 600-mile range and costs $180,000 (about £136k).

MODEL Y - 2020

Based on the underpinnings of the Model 3, the Model Y will be a smaller SUV sibling for the Model X.

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PICK-UP - 2020

Tapping into Tesla’s home market, the pick-up is expected to rival the Ford F150 and be based on the Model X.

ROADSTER - 2020

The sports car will become Tesla’s halo car. Musk reckons it will be capable of 0-60mph in just 1.9sec.

COMPACT CAR - 2022

VW ID rival will be Tesla’s most affordable car yet, especially if Tesla can keep its battery-cost advantages.

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Comments
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ralphsmall 11 August 2018

Tesla

He may be all you aficionados say but the company still burns cash at an alarming rate .  How long the shareholders and  US banks will support this remains to be seen . He is going to run out of punters eventually.

Dilly 10 August 2018

The musk effect

He is a bit like marmite really. I admire his way of thinking but clearly, the guy has some issues to do with his ego. Glad to see he was firmly put in his place by that cave diver recently who brought him down a peg or 2.  

Bob Cat Brian 10 August 2018

Dilly wrote:

Dilly wrote:

He is a bit like marmite really. I admire his way of thinking but clearly, the guy has some issues to do with his ego. Glad to see he was firmly put in his place by that cave diver recently who brought him down a peg or 2.  

indeed, I also like Marmite’s way of thinking, but the jars clearly have ego issues. 

Peter Cavellini 10 August 2018

Attitude like......?

  Elon Musk, a game changer?, yes, yes he is, but, he goes about in shall we say a unique way.

lambo1 10 August 2018

His so called attitude is how

His so called attitude is how he has got to where he is

Peter Cavellini 10 August 2018

No friends in business......?

Lambo1@, You could say he pushed the Stone down the Hill which started the EV Car revolution , but how he goes about doing business doesn’t exactly endear him to most,and he doesn’t care about that, just like a certain President, and who’d want that appellation...?

lambo1 10 August 2018

In your opinion...

In your opinion...

lambo1 10 August 2018

Pushed the stone that started

Pushed the stone that started the ev revolution. you must be stupid to think its been that easy.

Musk, one single man has changed the way the worlds automotive industry has had to change course. if its been such an easy feat, why has nobody else done it?

You and I have no idea the number of hurdles he has had to overcome to get to where he is now but its for sure that it hasnt been easy.

You are just another twit who hasnt an earthly and just likes to write cobblers

typos1 10 August 2018

lambo1 wrote:

lambo1 wrote:

Pushed the stone that started the ev revolution. you must be stupid to think its been that easy.

Musk, one single man has changed the way the worlds automotive industry has had to change course. if its been such an easy feat, why has nobody else done it?

You and I have no idea the number of hurdles he has had to overcome to get to where he is now but its for sure that it hasnt been easy.

You are just another twit who hasnt an earthly and just likes to write cobblers

Hes certainly made some great acheivments with EVs (Tesla's charging infrastructure), but hes also done some stupid things (sending a perfectly good car into space, the submarine publicity stunt, the abuse that followed). He has not "single handedly changed the way the worlds automotive industry has had to change course", though, that is nonsense. Nissan has done more than him - the Leaf was on sale before the S, X and 3 and more have been sold than Teslas.

Calling people who critcise Musk/Tesla names just makes you look stupid. Hes not some sort of god, he is not perfect and he is not beyond criticism. If you have to call pople names to back up your argument, youve lost it.

lambo1 10 August 2018

Musk has changed the ev world

Musk has changed the ev world and made it sexy and has accelerated the automotive world towards ev transport. Nissan isnt spoken in the same vein as Tesla and is an enormous corporation which EV is just a single part of its cars.

Musk is totally single minded in just EV transport not to mention space x etc

As for the submarine thing- If I had been told by a non entity to go and have sex with a 6 foot cylinder, I might have said the same thing back- he is human after all under great presure as even you must know.

As for calling other people names, last time I looked I could still say anything I wanted, so heres me being stupid again

Fuck off

typos1 10 August 2018

lambo1 wrote:

lambo1 wrote:

Musk has changed the ev world and made it sexy and has accelerated the automotive world towards ev transport. Nissan isnt spoken in the same vein as Tesla and is an enormous corporation which EV is just a single part of its cars.

Musk is totally single minded in just EV transport not to mention space x etc

As for the submarine thing- If I had been told by a non entity to go and have sex with a 6 foot cylinder, I might have said the same thing back- he is human after all under great presure as even you must know.

As for calling other people names, last time I looked I could still say anything I wanted, so heres me being stupid again

Fuck off

Whether hes made EVs "sexy" or not is entirely subjective - theyre isnt anything "sexy" aout any Tesla in my eyes (their styling is awful), though thats not to say there arent things about them I do like. That last comment will he hard for you to understand, seeing as youre an entirely black or white person.

Nissan may not be "spoken in the same vein" as Tesla but its sold many more EVs so has actually done more than Tesla, unless you think that "speaking" about a company can stop climate change.

A highly skilled diver responible for saving the lives of trapped children is NOT a "non entity". Trying to even suggest that a "6 foot cylinder" could in any way help the situation was madness, entering into a debate with one of the heroes who actually got off his arse and did something constructive to save the children, instead of doing ridiculous publicity stunts with devices that would have done zero to help, was a huge mis-judgement.

Oh yes, you can say as many silly things that you like, I never suggested you couldnt, I just pointed out that it totally debases your arguement, makes you look stupid and heres the irony, actually helps the case against your idol - low intelligence, abuse spewing children who support the guy whatever he does, however stupid, simply feeds the people who hate him. Much better, if you adore him so much, to try and participate in discussions in a mature and articluate way, its much more likely to persuade people than swearing, name calling and abuse.

 

Rodester 10 August 2018

lambo1 wrote:

lambo1 wrote:

Pushed the stone that started the ev revolution. you must be stupid to think its been that easy.

Musk, one single man has changed the way the worlds automotive industry has had to change course. if its been such an easy feat, why has nobody else done it?

You and I have no idea the number of hurdles he has had to overcome to get to where he is now but its for sure that it hasnt been easy.

You are just another twit who hasnt an earthly and just likes to write cobblers

Oh Bimbo1, you and your admiration for Rocketman, you misguided little individual. When he's burned out of cash and Tesla has run flat of investors
patience, where will your psychotic little idol be then? Nowhere, other than confined to the history books.

lambo1 10 August 2018

Welcome back thicko!

Welcome back thicko!

lambo1 10 August 2018

Welcome back thicko!

Welcome back thicko!

Rodester 10 August 2018

lambo1 wrote:

lambo1 wrote:

Welcome back thicko!

Is there an echo in here..