Report predicts rapid shift to electrification will see 220 million electrified vehicles on the roads by 2030

Skyrocketing global demand for electrified vehicles will require the building of “at least” 10 more battery 'gigafactories' by 2025, a new intergovernmental report has said.

According to findings produced by the International Energy Agency (IEA), a Paris-based organisation that advises governments on the future of energy, the global fleet of electrified vehicles will grow from just over three million vehicles today to as many as 220 million by 2030.

This rapid growth in hybrids, full electric and fuel-cell vehicles has already started to gain traction, so much so that the number of electrified cars on the roads globally will treble by 2020. The number of vehicle chargers (both private and public) also surged by around a million between 2016 and 2017.

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The IEA predicts that, by 2030, the growing popularity of electrified vehicles will reduce demand for oil by about 2.57 million barrels per day. However, it also suggests that, in order to achieve this and support demand for battery EVs, Tesla-style battery factories - or as Tesla CEO Elon Musk has coined them, gigafactories - will need to be opened in quick succession.

Tesla’s Nevada factory — which, when it is finished, will be the largest building in the world at more than 10 million square feet — will be able to produce 35 gigawatt-hours of batteries per year. That’s around half of the current global demand, but the IEA predicts that the world needs more than 10 times that by the end of the next decade.

Most demand for batteries will continue to come from China, which has already cemented itself as the world’s leading electrified car market, but Europe and the US will also see significant increases. Norway looks well placed to hang onto its lead in terms of market share – electrified vehicles accounted for 39% of new car sales there last year.

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The UK’s electrified car market has seen rapid growth recently, with a 49.3% year-on-year increase in April. There are now 9365 new alternatively fuelled vehicles on UK roads, although the market share is still a relatively small 5.6%.

The recent downturn of diesel hasn’t provided electrified car sales with the surge in demand that some had predicted. Diesel demand in Europe fell by 13.2% last month, but figures suggest this has encouraged more people to buy petrol-powered vehicles instead, because demand for these models grew by 53.5% in April. This shift to petrol recently led to the first recorded increase in automotive CO2 output since records began.

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Comments
12

30 May 2018

They could be built on top of some of the old oil refineries not needed anymore, even the power supply will be in place ready to hook up.

typos1 - Just can’t respect opinion

30 May 2018

Yes, but the reports highlights just why mass electricication cant happen as fast as some people think - it takes time to build factories ! All of which highlights the ridiculous stupidity and backwards steps made by the current switch away from and demonising of diesel and the refusal of retro fitting emissions equipment to older diesels. Its as ill thought out, ill thought through, rushed and major problem causing as Mr Cameron's Brexit refurendum. CO2 emissions have gone up cos weve killed our short term solution, the diesel engine, global warming hasnt disappeared, its still a thing, why would anyone in their right mind rejoice at undoing 20 years work of CO2 reduction ?

XXXX just went POP.

30 May 2018

Never gonna happen.

typos1 - Just can’t respect opinion

30 May 2018

Agree with you all the way, what people don't realise is that diesels are actually part of the solution. 

Friend of mine brough a Nissan leaf the a few months ago to do a 90 mile commute, however it oftern only had 20 miles left of the claimed 160 mile range, so he had to stop and charge it up before he could go out again or borrow a diferent comapny car. He even had specialists out from nissan to see if he was driving it wrong, so he changed his style and it still didn't help. The car is no going back and he will be replacing it with a DIESEL as thay do the best MPG. 

Eletric cars will come bt cleary not ready yet.

#Dieselsforlife

30 May 2018

To charge all these batteries up? These wonderful batteries that will need massive recycling plants so they don't contaminate the environment in years to come. That's before you've even considered that the materials used for making Hybrid and EV batteries are actually, like oil and gas, a finite resource. Sorry to break this to the battery brigade - but Cobalt and Lithium don't grow on trees.

30 May 2018

Pretty much all your points were debunked long ago. Do a little homework.

30 May 2018

Please enlighten me. Which statement is wrong? Are you saying that completely knackered battery packs 'won't' have to be recycled - we can just throw them in the landfill?

Or that Cobalt and Lithium (and all the other metals) aren't in fact a finite resource - their availability will be forever...?!

Or was it the power station bit? You telling me we won't need anymore capacity on the grid...?! This is great news...!

 

31 May 2018
Luap wrote:

Pretty much all your points were debunked long ago. Do a little homework.

 

Actually he's absolutely correct.  Have you ever been to a mine?  Or a processing plant?  They are dirty places that ruin the environment.  The more batteries we make, the worse the damage to our planet.

31 May 2018
I'm gonna say diesel powered generators...

30 May 2018
Harnessing solar power which is what Tesla does and hybrid cars should erase any realistic objections to electrification and the demise of diesel in small cars.

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