Government goes cold on keeping hybrids after 2030

The UK government has indicated it is getting cold feet about allowing plug-in hybrids – and, by extension, regular hybrids – to remain on sale in the country beyond 2030 after publishing evidence showing their CO2 output is much higher than initially claimed. Manufacturers had hoped that certain hybrids would be allowed to remain on sale for five years after the ban on petrol- and diesel-engined cars is due in 2030. Toyota has threatened to shut its plant in Burnaston, Derbyshire, if regular hybrids aren’t included in the clause that allows combustion-engined vehicles with “significant zero-emission capability” (SZEC) to be sold up to the end of 2034. “If the government adopts an SZEC requirement that causes an early end to the sale of new full-hybrid electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle sales in 2030, there would be an impact on a number of areas,” an internal Toyota document seen by the Telegraph last year read. The government on Thursday published its final consultation on the so-called “ZEV mandate” that requires car makers to sell a percentage of zero-emission vehicles from 2024. The consultation document failed to include a definition for SZEC that would be allowed after 2030, but the accompanying cost-benefit analysis document included damning evidence showing that the government doesn’t believe plug-in hybrids reduce CO2 levels in the way they claim. The government said in the report it is delaying its definition of the term until later this year “in the wake of new evidence on technological and environmental uncertainty of PHEVs”. The government cited a report from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) last year showing PHEVs may emit between three and five times more CO2 than shown on official test cycles. The government also included its own evidence that shows on average UK petrol PHEVs consume enough fuel to emit on average 137g/km of CO2 compared with an average 40g/km on the NEDC test cycle. “As a result of this recent and pivotal evidence, more time is needed to understand how significant zero-emission capability should be defined,” the report said. The car industry has long been waiting for the government to define ‘significant’ zero emissions as it plans future production in the UK. “The continued lack of clarity as to what technologies will be permitted beyond 2030 undermines attempts to secure investment,” Mike Hawes, head of the SMMT automotive industry lobby group, said in a statement on Thursday. PHEVs accounted for 6.7% of registrations in the first two months of this year according to SMMT data, a drop from 7.9% the same period in 2022. Pure-electric cars, meanwhile, took a 14% share, with hybrids also at 14%. A ban on plug-in hybrids after 2030 would significantly hurt Jaguar Land Rover, which has pivoted to the technology after the collapse in diesel sales. JLR was the second biggest seller of plug-in hybrids in the first two months of the year, after BMW. Car makers are hitting back against the lack of real-world effectiveness of plug-in hybrids by making the batteries larger, as well as implementing geofencing technology to allow more of the electric charge to be used in urban areas. The proposed European Union Euro 7 emissions regulation from 2025 will include an additional category called Euro 7G specifically aimed at plug-in hybrids that will mandate geo-fencing technology.