The UK gets its own scrappage scheme on Monday. The big question is: will it work?

If you look at the figures published today by the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA), you might well conclude that it will. The only countries in the EU15 and European Free Trade Association (EFTA) to post a year-on-year rise in new car sales in April were Germany and Austria, both of which have scrappage schemes.

Read the full set of the ACEA's figures here

Scrappage: who's signed up?

European car sales continue to tumble

Italy and France also bettered the EU-wide 12 per cent downward trend, their markets only shrinking by 7.5 per cent and 7.1 per cent respectively. So scrappage must be helping these markets recover, right? Seems like a reasonable assumption.

But Spain, Portugal and Romania’s results muddy matters. These countries have all introduced scrappage schemes, but Spain’s sales are down 45.6 per cent, Portugal’s figures have dropped by 33.9 per cent, and Romania has shed 51.4 per cent of its monthly sales.