So maybe we’re not doomed after all. Certainly not if you believe the bits of the media that are extrapolating strong sales on the high street into a total avoidance of the recession that previously seemed inevitable.

Car forecourt Well, sorry to be the gloomy old voice of reason - but a quick trip to your local car showroom will demonstrate that one bit of the economy is already being ravaged by the early effects of the dreaded ‘R’-word.

Yes, punters may still be happy to splash cash on barbeques and garden furniture (quite possibly instead of taking a holiday in the actual sun), but after a tour around some of my local dealers I can report that the car trade is going into hibernation.

Traders are telling me that they’re keeping their money in the bank rather than buying stock. One admitted that he hadn’t bothered going down to the auctions for weeks. He said that price expectations are still high but that nothing much is happening: even diddy superminis that do 45-plus mpg aren’t selling that well. The problem is that most buyers come with part exchanges, which will be equally hard to shift. That means either insultingly low offers or polite refusals, gumming the whole system up.