2010 will be a bleak year for car sales, saw industry experts
6 November 2009

Western European New car sales shot up by 16.5 per cent in October compared with a year earlier.

However, industry analysts are predicting a fall of up to 10 per cent across the whole of 2010 as the beneficial effects of scrappage schemes come to an end.

UK car sales up 31.6 per cent

Figures from Germany say that, so far in 2009, sales are up 25.9 percent but that the country’s hugely successful scrappage scheme end in September. Other European scrappage schemes, including the one in the UK, will also end before 2010.

According to JD Power figures quoted by just-auto, analysts expect Western European car sales to drop from 13.4m units this year to 12m units next year.

Adding to the bleak outlook, the analysts also predict that growth in Western European new car sales in 2011 will be in ‘single digits’.

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11

6 November 2009

[quote Autocar]Western European New car sales shot up by 16.5 per cent in October compared with a year earlier.
[/quote]

'Western Europe' - you can tell JD Power is a America-originating organisation as it still seems to think there is a West and East Europe presumably divided by an Iron Curtain. Breaking news knuckleheads, the Berlin Wall fell 20 years and and generally most normal people now regard the continent of Europe as one market place, especially after the EU was extended to 27 countries in 2005. So I think these quaint people mean 'Europe', rather than 'Western Europe'.

6 November 2009

[quote richardhead]'Western Europe' - you can tell JD Power is a America-originating organisation as it still seems to think there is a West and East Europe presumably divided by an Iron Curtain. Breaking news knuckleheads, the Berlin Wall fell 20 years and and generally most normal people now regard the continent of Europe as one market place, especially after the EU was extended to 27 countries in 2005. So I think these quaint people mean 'Europe', rather than 'Western Europe'.[/quote]

Richard, I think you might be a bit of a pseudo. In theory, you're right but anyone who actually trades with the former eastern bloc countries knows that the contrary is in fact the case in reality. There very much still is an Eastern Europe. A wall coming down, even 20 years ago, is just a symbol. Sure, there are shades of westernism (if that's a word) across the CEE countries but nevertheless they are all communist (with a small 'c') in one way or another still. Decades of underinvestment and limited supply of what the world wants to buy will do that for you. Old habits die very hard indeed.

I think this article is stating the obvious but the motor trade, in my view, has a habit of short-term thinking and I bet they're not thinking about how they're going to make up the shortfall once scrappage ends. Then again, I loath car salesmen so that might just be prejudice on my part.

6 November 2009

[quote richardhead]'Western Europe' - you can tell JD Power is a America-originating organisation as it still seems to think there is a West and East Europe presumably divided by an Iron Curtain. Breaking news knuckleheads, the Berlin Wall fell 20 years and and generally most normal people now regard the continent of Europe as one market place, especially after the EU was extended to 27 countries in 2005. So I think these quaint people mean 'Europe', rather than 'Western Europe'.[/quote]

Hmm i think you are mistaken, possibly confusing West and East Germany for Western Europe and Eastern Europe, of course the latter exist, just as we have Northern Europe and Southern Europe. By the way we also have Northern England and Southern England, Eastern England and Western England even though we are 1 country, amazing.

6 November 2009

The JD Power bods are giving the statistics for the European market, not 'Western Europe'. ACEA, the European constructors body, give out these stats each month. See below:

http://www.acea.be/index.php/news/news_detail/press_releases_monthly_provisional_vehicle_registrations/

ACEA, who are the body that should know, talk about 'Europe'. That was my point. JD Power are incorrect. The 13.4m figure(14.7m 2008) refers to Europe, including the new EU member states, which are basically the former Iron Curtain countries minus the former Yugoslav countries.

For the record ACEA includes in the 'Europe' market figure the EU(EU27) countries plus the EFTA countries(Iceland, Norway, Switzerland).

Someone really should tell the 'industry analysts' at JD Power that there is a publicly available European vehicle reg stats service ,courtesy of ACEA, that they should refer to. But then perhaps they may not be able to readily justify their rarified salaries.

Before you patronise be sure of your ground for it may rebound.

11 15/01/09

December December % Chg Jan - Dec Jan - Dec % Chg

'08 '07 08/07 '08 '07 08/07

AUSTRIA 15,712 18,768 -16.3 293,697 298,182 -1.5

BELGIUM 21,837 23,695 -7.8 535,947 524,798 +2.1

DENMARK 8,395 13,838 -39.3 149,967 162,684 -7.8

FINLAND 4,474 2,097 +113.4 139,647 125,617 +11.2

FRANCE 153,686 182,548 -15.8 2,050,282 2,064,543 -0.7

GERMANY 225,981 241,905 -6.6 3,090,040 3,148,163 -1.8

GREECE 7,938 10,414 -23.8 267,242 279,794 -4.5

IRELAND 188 493 -61.9 151,607 186,540 -18.7

ITALY 140,656 162,223 -13.3 2,160,131 2,493,106 -13.4

LUXEMBURG** 2,761 2,926 -5.6 52,359 51,332 +2.0

NETHERLANDS 7,247 8,963 -19.1 499,980 505,538 -1.1

PORTUGAL 21,158 15,348 +37.9 213,386 201,816 +5.7

SPAIN 72,377 144,441 -49.9 1,161,176 1,614,835 -28.1

SWEDEN 17,156 30,750 -44.2 253,982 306,794 -17.2

UNITED KINGDOM 108,691 137,960 -21.2 2,131,795 2,404,007 -11.3

EUROPEAN UNION (EU15) 808,257 996,369 -18.9 13,151,238 14,367,749 -8.5

ICELAND 46 850 -94.6 9,033 15,942 -43.3

NORWAY 7,819 9,222 -15.2 110,617 129,195 -14.4

SWITZERLAND** 23,026 22,683 +1.5 287,489 284,688 +1.0

EFTA 30,891 32,755 -5.7 407,139 429,825 -5.3

EU15+EFTA 839,148 1,029,124 -18.5 13,558,377 14,797,574 -8.4

BULGARIA 3 617 6 035 40 1 45 143 43 521 3 7

PRESS EMBARGO FOR ALL DATA :

8.00 A.M.(7.00 A.M GMT), January 15, 2009

EUROPE (EU* + EFTA)

3,617 6,035 -40.1 45,143 43,521 +3.7

CZECH REPUBLIC 10,304 10,551 -2.3 143,661 132,542 +8.4

ESTONIA 985 1,812 -45.6 24,335 30,902 -21.3

HUNGARY** 10,540 12,930 -18.5 155,909 171,661 -9.2

LATVIA 963 2,253 -57.3 19,192 32,497 -40.9

LITHUANIA 1,029 1,760 -41.5 21,514 20,988 +2.5

POLAND 29,654 26,677 +11.2 319,965 292,376 +9.4

ROMANIA 18,852 24,143 -21.9 285,489 312,532 -8.7

SLOVAKIA 6,393 5,293 +20.8 70,040 59,700 +17.3

6 November 2009

Ahem. Coughs. YOU SAID......

[quote richardhead]Breaking news knuckleheads, the Berlin Wall fell 20 years and and generally most normal people now regard the continent of Europe as one market place.[/quote]

.....when it's not really the case in reality.

7 November 2009

[quote Notiron]

Ahem. Coughs. YOU SAID......

[quote richardhead]Breaking news knuckleheads, the Berlin Wall fell 20 years and and generally most normal people now regard the continent of Europe as one market place.[/quote]

.....when it's not really the case in reality.

[/quote]

WTF are you on about? Being cryptic is not the same as being intelligent. Get those coughs seen to too, you may have TB. One can hope.

7 November 2009

What evidence do you hold that the salaries of the J D Power staff are "rarified"?

J D Power are an independent commercial organisation who pay their salaries etc. by charging customers - who presumably are happy to know "western Europe " sales estimates.

I see no data inside the monthly ACEA stats which is predicting sales which is a service I beleive J D Power offer.

CADDY06

7 November 2009

[quote richardhead]

[quote Notiron]

Ahem. Coughs. YOU SAID......

[quote richardhead]Breaking news knuckleheads, the Berlin Wall fell 20 years and and generally most normal people now regard the continent of Europe as one market place.[/quote]

.....when it's not really the case in reality.

[/quote]

WTF are you on about? Being cryptic is not the same as being intelligent. Get those coughs seen to too, you may have TB. One can hope.

[/quote]

Allow me to spell it out for you if this is too cryptic for you.

What you said :-

All Europe is one level playing field as far as a market is concerned.

What I said :-

No it isn't.

Am I getting anywhere my pseudo friend?

7 November 2009

[quote Notiron]

Richard, I think you might be a bit of a pseudo. In theory, you're right but anyone who actually trades with the former eastern bloc countries knows that the contrary is in fact the case in reality. There very much still is an Eastern Europe. A wall coming down, even 20 years ago, is just a symbol. Sure, there are shades of westernism (if that's a word) across the CEE countries but nevertheless they are all communist (with a small 'c') in one way or another still. Decades of underinvestment and limited supply of what the world wants to buy will do that for you. Old habits die very hard indeed.

[/quote]Just shows how much you know. UK is still in recesion, Poland, for one is still growing, and car sales have been increasing year on year. Get your facts right before slagging of central european countries for being communist (even with a small "c"). eg. UK GDP last Quarter -0.4 Poland's GDP same period +0.8.

7 November 2009

Val - I think you've misunderstood what I was saying. Anyone who goes to Poland (Warsaw especially) will understand what I am saying. I travel there all the time and, yes, you're right about the economy but the trip in from the airport to the centre of town tell you all you need to know about whether there's any communism left there : row upon row upon row of horrid concrete flats. As a contrast from Poland's economy which, as you say, is growing largely off the back of the 2012 football finals and EU investment, if you go to Romania (as I have) you will see quite a phenomenal difference. MUCH less westernised. Even Hungary, which is quite westernised has an economy which is subject to an IMF loan and, frankly, in the shitter. Communism wasn't really my point. The point was that anyone who thinks that Europe is one great big level market is talking nonsense. The CEE countries are far, far more underdeveloped than Western Europe.

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