JD Power predicts 2009 sales could reach 2008 levels, but issues a warning over 2010 sales
7 July 2009

JD Power has predicted western European car sales will reach 13.33 million units in 2009, just shy of the 13.56 million units sold in 2008.

The automotive forecaster said scrappage incentive schemes and significant discounts from manufacturers could see 2009 sales reach those seen last year.

Western European car sales were up 4.1 per cent in June to 1.37 million units, the first rise in 12 months.

Twitter - follow autocar.co.uk

A JD Power statement said: “While sales will be well down on 'normal' levels in 2009, the double incentive has had the effect of stabilizing the market and preventing what would otherwise have become a collapse.”

JD predicts that Germany will be western Europe’s strongest seller and it may reach four million units by the end of 2009 if the country’s scrappage scheme remains a success.

“A market of around 4 million units now looks to be a realistic possibility for 2009 with sales pushing up towards the record set in 1991 during reunification,” said the statement.

UK and Spanish sales are set to continue to improve after scrappage schemes started in May. French and Italian figures are already up on last year’s due to the success of similar schemes.

But JD added its voice to the ongoing concern of how markets will suffer when scrappage schemes end.

“Demand at the current level may prove almost impossible to sustain,” said JD Power.

“If, as appears very likely indeed, the incentive schemes expire at the end of 2009 as planned, the negative impact will be large. We expect this market correction to be significant enough to more than wipe out any gains in underlying demand or even the renewal of incentives in other countries for 2010.”

Mark Tisshaw

Add your comment

Log in or register to post comments

Find an Autocar car review

Driven this week

  • Skoda-Karoq 2.0 TDI 4x4
    First Drive
    16 October 2017
    Diesel version of Skoda’s junior SUV is unobtrusive and undemanding, but we’d still go for the silkier petrol version of the Karoq
  • Audi Q7 e-tron
    First Drive
    16 October 2017
    Expensive and flawed but this understated diesel-electric Audi Q7 has a lot to offer
  • Citroën C3
    First Drive
    16 October 2017
    Is the third gen Citroën C3 ‘fresh and different’ enough to take on its supermini rivals? We spend six months with one to find out
  • BMW X3
    First Drive
    15 October 2017
    A satisfying rework of the X3 that usefully improves its handling, cabin finish, space and connectivity to make this BMW a class front-runner again
  • Vauxhall Insignia Country Tourer
    First Drive
    13 October 2017
    Off-road estate is now bigger, more spacious and available with torque-vectoring all-wheel drive, but is it enough to make its German rivals anxious?