Industry analysts IHS predict burgeoning growth in the sale of autonomous cars, with the US and China expected to lead the way
10 June 2016

Automotive consulting firm IHS has released details of a report that predicts a massive rise in the use and sale of autonomous vehicles and suggests that annual autonomous car sales will reach 21 million by 2035

The report says the stride towards autonomy on the roads will be led by the US, with several thousand such vehicles in use by 2020. Japan is also expected to ramp up investment in autonomous vehicles and industry co-ordination for the 2020 Summer Olympics.

The single largest market for the technology, however, could be China, with the volume of vehicles sold and the demand for new technology leading to predicted autonomous vehicle sales of 4.5m by 2035.

The premium segment in major western European markets will ensure that the region leads the way in industry technology, with some 3m vehicles expected to sell in 2035. Eastern Europe won’t be far behind, with a predicted 1.2m vehicles sold in the same year, along with more than 1m in the Middle East and Africa.

Egil Juliussen, IHS Automotive’s director of research, believes global sales of autonomous vehicles will hit 600,000 by 2025. “Our new forecast reflects a 43% compound annual growth rate between 2025 and 2035 - a decade of substantial growth, as driverless and self-driving cars alike are more widely adopted in all key global automotive markets,” he said.

Influencers on such growth include mobility solutions such as ride sharing and car sharing and more investment in autonomy by manufacturers, suppliers and technology companies. IHS took into account current R&D projects and discussions between OEMs and suppliers when making the forecast.

Progress isn't expected to be straightforward. IHS suggests that challenges to the establishment of autonomous motoring will include global legislation, cybersecurity and software reliability.

”Future mobility will connect and combine many different modes and technologies, and autonomous vehicles will play a central role,” said Jeremy Carlson, principal analyst at IHS Automotive.

“IHS expects entirely new vehicle segments to be created, in addition to traditional vehicles adding autonomous capabilities. Consumers gain new choices in personal mobility to complement mass transit, and these new choices will increasingly use battery electric and other efficient means of propulsion.”

Phill Tromans

Our Verdict

Tesla Model S 95D

In theory, this all-electric luxury car looks a hit. So is it in practice?

Join the debate

Comments
2

10 June 2016
And not a mention of how much this option will cost, £20,000 to the cost a BMW 3 series??? If they don’t know this all their predictions are tosh

 

Hydrogen cars just went POP

10 June 2016
A few years ago certain manufacturers were expressing concern as to how they could appeal to younger generations who were showing less desire for car ownership. I guess self-driving and autonomous vehicles is the predictable answer for those who don't really enjoy cars and the activity of driving.

Add your comment

Log in or register to post comments

Find an Autocar car review

Driven this week

  • Lexus LC500
    Car review
    20 October 2017
    Futuristic Lexus LC coupé mixes the latest technology with an old-school atmospheric V8
  • Maserati Levante S GranSport
    First Drive
    20 October 2017
    Get ready to trade in your diesels: Maserati’s luxury SUV finally gets the engine it’s always needed
  • Jaguar XF Sportbrake TDV6
    First Drive
    19 October 2017
    The handsome Jaguar XF Sportbrake exhibits all the hallmarks that makes the saloon great, and with the silky smooth diesel V6 makes it a compelling choice
  • Volkswagen T-Roc TDI
    First Drive
    19 October 2017
    Volkswagen's new compact crossover has the looks, the engineering and the build quality to be a resounding success, but not with this diesel engine
  • BMW M550i
    First Drive
    19 October 2017
    The all-paw M550i is a fast, effortless mile-muncher, but there's a reason why it won't be sold in the UK