History shows appetite can return for electric cars

American farmers in the 1960s had a surprising amount in common with electric car buyers in the UK in 2024. EM Rogers’ diffusion of innovations theory looks at how quickly new ideas and technologies are adopted by different parts of societies over time. Of the five types of people identified in Rogers’ bell curve, innovators and early adopters account for just 16% - the exact figure the UK’s electric car has stalled at en route to the legislated 80% needed by 2030. Some 60 years ago, American farmers stalled at this point in their willingness to adopt new technologies to aid farming methods, and as Rogers’ theory has shown, many other industries since have witnessed similar stagnation of innovation. Using Rogers’ theory, the 16% stall point for EV adoption in the UK could have been predicted decades ago, and it suggests that the growth electric cars have enjoyed to date will by no means see them inevitably continue to become the mainstream, rather than merely a part of it. This means a different approach is needed for incentivising the mass adoption of EVs. The next set of buyers have different needs, expectations and anxieties, and they will be swayed by negative stories and put off in a way that early adopters won’t. Early adopters are well informed and pre-sold on EVs; the mass market needs more reassurance and to understand the technology better. Incentives are part of this but not the only tool, and cracking the mainstream requires much deeper thinking, chiefly along the lines that not all EV buyers should be lumped into the same pot. In Rogers’ bell curve, innovators and early adopters combined make up 16% and are followed by a 34% early majority and a 34% late majority, before 16% of 'laggards’ bringing up the rear. Getting that messaging right and the right information out there is the mission of all car makers. They need to tread carefully and take all buyers with them, not just in a way that appeals to early adopters. There are people who have a less forensic and more traditional approach to car buying and for whom an EV will remain an alien concept for a long time to come. Wider exposure to EVs for everyone in this country, whether they're about to buy a new car or not, is important as part of a long-term and widespread information campaign, including everything from greater awareness of batteries, charging, range and the recharging infrastructure, as well as opportunities for drivers to experience EVs away from the buying process. “One thing we also need to talk about is usage and not maximum range,” one car company executive recently told me. “The average daily usage for one of our cars with any powertrain is just over 25 miles. With home charging, it makes total sense as a daily commute and city or second car. Yet still, a binary yes/no question of whether it has a 300-mile range is the dominant argument.” Car buyers tend to be lumped together collectively, but each time a person buys a car, it’s an individual decision. When it comes to EVs there will always be reasons not to or reasons to put it off. American farmers got there in the end, and inevitably so too will EVs in the UK for myriad reasons, the bluntest being legislative - yet there must not be complacency along the way or an assumption that progress in EV uptake will be linear.