Large uptake of electric cars predicted by boss of leading battery maker
1 October 2009

Electric cars will account for up to 15 per cent of the market by 2020, according to the boss of leading lithium ion battery maker Ener1.

But the bulk of the electric vehicle market will initially be taken up by small urban delivery vans, Ener1 CEO Charles Gassenheimer told Autocar.

Read the Autocar review of the Volvo C30 BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle)

‘We’re anticipating the market early adopters to be municipal government fleets, particularly in Asia and Europe’ he said, revealing that his company was involved in supplying technology to the Japanese postal service for its delivery vans.

However Gassenheimer also sees a future for electric cars such as the new battery powered Volvo C30, also one of his company’s projects. But, he argues that there’s no long term viability without a mass infrastructure of charging points being put in place.

‘We need the cars, the battery technology and the charging points and all three need to be there for electric cars to work’ he said.

However with a mass network of charging points battery technology could become simpler and cheaper: ‘Why make a car with a range of 150 miles, that no one really needs. With the right infrastructure we only need to make it last for 50 miles which requires a smaller and cheaper battery.’

Gassenheimer also predicts that leasing a battery, separate from an electric car is the way the industry will go.

‘In the short term you will have to buy them both together, but when we learn more about the life of a battery and recycling costs come down a battery will be financeable’ he said.

Chas Hallett

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1 October 2009

[quote Autocar]Electric cars will account for up to 15 per cent of the market by 2020, according to the boss of leading lithium ion battery maker Ener1.

But the bulk of the electric vehicle market will initially be taken up by small urban delivery vans, Ener1 CEO Charles Gassenheimer told Autocar.
[/quote]

Gee, do you think Ener1's Charles Gasbag might have a vested interest in 'forecasting' one in six cars being electric by 2020?

Utter PR bilge. Will you report that VW's top technical man, Dr Ulrich Hackenberg, said only at the Frankfurt Show two weeks ago, that purely electric cars would make up no more than 10% of the total by 2020 with the ICE still being dominant? Now who should we listen to, a man whose income depends on flogging batteries for milkfloats or the most senior technical man at Europe's largest car maker?

Why not regale us again with your PR verbatim reproduction of Goldman Sach's experts forecasting oil price at $200 a barrel by end of 2008 in July '08.

1 October 2009

[quote Autocar]Electric cars will account for up to 15 per cent of the market by 2020, according to the boss of leading lithium ion battery maker Ener1.[/quote]

Shocking.

1 October 2009

Ohm,Ohm,Ohm, just meditating! lol

Peter Cavellini.

Anonymous

1 October 2009

[quote rogerthecabinboy]Utter PR bilge. Will you report that VW's top technical man, Dr Ulrich Hackenberg, said only at the Frankfurt Show two weeks ago, that purely electric cars would make up no more than 10% of the total by 2020 with the ICE still being dominant? Now who should we listen to, a man whose income depends on flogging batteries for milkfloats or the most senior technical man at Europe's largest car maker?[/quote][quote rogerthecabinboy]Utter PR bilge. Will you report that VW's top technical man, Dr Ulrich Hackenberg, said only at the Frankfurt Show two weeks ago, that purely electric cars would make up no more than 10% of the total by 2020 with the ICE still being dominant? Now who should we listen to, a man whose income depends on flogging batteries for milkfloats or the most senior technical man at Europe's largest car maker?[/quote] We did report Hackenburg's prediction. As we have the predictions of Renault, Merc etc etc. The simple fact is that no-one really knows because no-one knows how quickly charging infrastructure can be introduced. Or how consumers will take to it.
This is just someone else's opinion. But the thing to remember is that to get required emissions reductions all cars will have to be electrified in some way, be it some form of hybrid, full EV or, possibly, fuel-cell. In all cases you will need a battery. So the battery makers will benefit whichever way we go.

1 October 2009

[quote rogerthecabinboy]Utter PR bilge. Will you report that VW's top technical man, Dr Ulrich Hackenberg, said only at the Frankfurt Show two weeks ago, that purely electric cars would make up no more than 10% of the total by 2020 with the ICE still being dominant? Now who should we listen to, a man whose income depends on flogging batteries for milkfloats or the most senior technical man at Europe's largest car maker?[/quote]

Gee, do you think VW's Dr. Hack might have a vested interest in 'forecasting' nine out of ten cars will be powered by gas or diesel for the foreseeable future? Now who should we listen to, a man whose income depends on flogging diesel/petrol for snitzelvagons or a proponent of next gen car tech?

I guess anyone can have an opinion these days, what’s the world coming too?

You don’t need a weatherman
To know which way the wind blows
—Robert Allen Zimmerman

1 October 2009

the future for battery makers is not certain either. the whole capture technology maybe taken by capacitors. and regarding emissions conformity that requires that emission laws on co2 exist in 2020, which they might not, science and politicians may abandon concern over co2 outputs. we dont know that either.

1 October 2009

[quote Chas Hallett]But the thing to remember is that to get required emissions reductions all cars will have to be electrified in some way, be it some form of hybrid, full EV or, possibly, fuel-cell. In all cases you will need a battery. So the battery makers will benefit whichever way we go.[/quote]

Chas, are you serious?: "to get required emissions reductions all cars will have to be electrified in some way, be it some form of hybrid, full EV or, possibly, fuel-cell." European makers are already in large part meeting the requirements of the 2015 mandate of 130g CO2/km, with a larger proportion of smaller cars in their total sales and smaller, more efficient petrol/diesel engines. European scrappage schemes, small turbocharged, direct injection petrols and the beginning of earnest weight-saving in body construction have accelerated the reaching of this 2015 requirement years ahead of schedule. See Audi's current Efficiency Challenge A to B as a good example of near to real life practice attaining of fuel consumption at around or near this level: http://www.audi-efficiency-challenge.com/en/day9/

Audi A3 1.6 TDI 3l/100km

Audi A4 2.0 TDIe 4l/100km

Audi A5 Sportback 2.0 TFSI 4.9l/100km

The statement that to get the 2020 95g CO2/km target(is it mandated yet?) will require some form of electrification is not borne out by progress to meeting the 2012/2015 target thus far. Car makers are well ahead of where they need to be to meet the 2015 CO2 emission level with the current methods - smaller, lighter cars, downsized, forced induction SI and CI internal combustion units. There is no reason to believe that they would not be able to meet the 95g CO2 emission figure for 2020 by continuing this approach. In some instances, see VW's Up! to be introduced next year, they are already meeting or about to meet this 2020 level of emission in a mainstream, affordable car.

Let's not kid about. The real driver of electric power for cars is external, legislative, i.e. enforced by the politicians and associated lobby groups. It is not techologically driven. Yes, the larger, heavier vehicle producers like Daimler and BMW will have to go some way down the hybrid route, to get down to 130/95g emission levels, whilst still offering high performance. As Dr Hackenberg said, fully electric cars will in 2020 still be the preserve of mega city environments(>3m persons) and not sustainable in other environs, or in the large commercial vehicle field. Let us not forget too that the whole basis that these electric cars are being promoted for, by tax breaks, direct buying subsidies and so on, that of reducing the amount of the emission of the greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, into the earth's atmosphere, is a hoax and a hugely lucrative scam for those behind it. Catastrophic man made global warming by the emission of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels, in car, lorries and so on is a lie. Let's not beat about the bush. It's a dreadful lie, a malicious act perpetrated on gullible people. Neither is ther e imminently approaching oil reserves depletion(or even 'peak oil'), where the supply of petrol and diesel will soon run out, forcing the use of alternative propulsions, like electric cars. Known crude oil reserves are greater than 100 years of current usage. Britain has 3-400 years of fossil fuel, coal, unmined under it. The Germans used coal to make coal gas and a viable petroleum spirit substitute during WWII. We are being lied to and swindled. Electric cars will never be viable economically for the forseeable future, certainly not before 2020. A kWh of current state of the art battery power costs around $1,500. They will cost billions in public money in order to subsidise their selling prices to allow the artificial appearance of being able to compete with conventional cars on purchase price - witness Fisker Automotive getting half a billion dollars in US Govt grants this past week. Cars like the GM Volt will be a disaster, coming in at around twice the cost of a comparable coventional automobile. To save face for the govts, green lobby and to sustain the lie of CO2 as a greenhouse gas, they will have to be almost given away, at taxpayers' money huge expense. The race is on to get these electric cars to market and make money for battery producers like Enerl before the masses wake up to the mind-boggling hoax perpetrated on them and then the subsequent collapse of the whole alternative energy/eco energy, alternative propulsion of automobiles scam.

Sorry for the length of response but this whole subject is the key to the future of the auto industry and a great deal else besides.

PS look up 'North Slope of Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, giant, untapped oil field', if you really want to see what lengths the real money men will go to to make Joe Soap pay through the nose for his motoring and total energy requirements.

1 October 2009

[quote rogerthecabinboy]Let's not kid about. The real driver of electric power for cars is external, legislative, i.e. enforced by the politicians and associated lobby groups.[/quote]

Only small portion quoted to save server space...

Man you do go on, what is there to worry yourself about? If the electrification of transportation is the huge folly you fear it is then it will fail on its own merit or lack of it. You could make up equally absurd conspiracy theories about politicians and lobby groups promoting fossil fuel. Batteries are just another source of power/fuel that you will have a right to use or dismiss outright and continue to use petrol/diesel if you think it provides a better solution to your energy needs. The reason your VW group genius is so high on petrol/diesel is because that is where his bread is buttered. The German manufacturers are woefully behind in battery tech and outsource the tech they currently possess. On the other hand the German manufacturers have spent massive amounts of money and time developing clean diesel, so it’s not surprising the amount of paranoia is at an all time high in the hinterlands.

You don’t need a weatherman
To know which way the wind blows
—Robert Allen Zimmerman

1 October 2009

[quote jackjflash]Man you do go on, what is there to worry yourself about? If the electrification of transportation is the huge folly you fear it is then it will fail on its own merit or lack of it. You could make up equally absurd conspiracy theories [/quote]

man, you're a dolt, trying to pull that conspiracy crap. Were you not informed and shown on here a few days ago that the infamous 'hockey stick' data, upon which so much of the AGW hoax and scam rests/rested, has been shown to be fraudulent? Then everything on from that falls like a pack of cards: without AGW, there is no need/point to limit the emission of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels. So what exactly is your point with chucking around the 'conspiracy' smear tag, like a two year old with dog crap?

1 October 2009

So where's all the Lithium going to come from? Lithium is actually quite a rare mineral. Also you can bet your house that BP and Shell are pouring money into Hydrogen as an alternative.

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