Wed
Jul 01 2009

Carbon dioxide and the law of averages

Tim Dickson
An enquiring email arrived in the Autocar inbox the other day, from a reader of the mag. One John Carter, operator of a fleet of 50 or so company cars with an average CO2 output of 147g/km (“and falling”, he says), wondered what the overall average CO2 figure for the Autocar long-term test fleet was. Or indeed is.

Good question. And finally, a few days later, once we’d got some important magazine-making tasks out of the way, we have an answer. Now, bear in mind that our long-term fleet is in a regular, if not constant, state of flux, with new arrivals arriving and old favourites departing pretty much on a weekly basis. But as of this morning, the average figure is…drum roll, please… 175g/km. Which, as an overall average, is, I suppose, about average.



Actually, considering some of the tasty hardware we’ve got out in the car park right now, that’s not too bad at all. Currently sitting on top of the table, unsurprisingly, is the Aston Martin V8 Vantage Roadster (312g/km), with our Lexus IS-F (270g/km) trailing in second, ahead of editor Hallett’s brand new 911 Carrera 4S (247g/km – read all about it in next week’s mag).

At the other end of the scale our 1.0-litre automatic iQ2 (99g/km) brings up the eco-friendly rear, with the recently acquired Honda Insight (105g/km) next in line for Autocar’s very own green motoring award. And the Hyundai i10 (119g/km) should please the eco-activists too.

Of more interest, perhaps, are the motors of note occupying commendably low positions on the Autocar emissions table, particularly the immensely entertaining Alpina D3 Touring (145g/km) and Audi’s wholly impressive TT TDI (139g/km).

Of course had our Land Rover Defender 110 XS (291g/km) still been around then things might have looked a little different, although that would have been offset, to an extent, by the Fiat Bravo 1.6 Dynamic Eco (119g/km) that left at around the same time. But as I said, it’s a moveable feast, and one we’ll be keeping half an eye on in the future.

Talking of moveable feasts, as it currently stands the EU’s target for the average CO2 emissions from new cars is 130g/km by 2012. There’s no word yet if that will also apply to motoring magazines’ long-term test fleets, but if it does then a judicious selective process on our part shouldn’t make the process too painful.

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Comments

TegTypeR July 1, 2009 5:05 PM

I have three cars in my own personal fleet.  Just done the sums and that works out at an average of 240g/km.  Ooof!

As a magazine you are in the privileged position of having a new fleet.  I wonder what other readers who run older vehicles averages are?

Uncle Mellow July 1, 2009 7:28 PM

Er - generally for older vehicles there are no published figures. They only really started this at the turn of the century, and the 20th century is king in my house.

beachland2 July 1, 2009 8:42 PM

or the turn on the millennium even.

404notfound July 1, 2009 10:14 PM

I don't care what the CO2 figure is.  Cars add nothing to global warming anyway.  It's a myth that will one day be admitted.  And yes, I do have the figures to prove it.  There's never been so much carp, as the idea that cars are warming the world - apart from modern art, that is.

sexybeast54 July 1, 2009 10:33 PM

I'll try that line at the post office next time I need to taxt my car

Uncle Mellow July 1, 2009 11:37 PM

I so agree about modern art.

The Fop July 2, 2009 2:06 PM

Global warming is a myth?  And there are figures to PROVE it?  I'd be interested to see them, as many would disagree.  Where is this available?

404notfound July 2, 2009 4:51 PM

I never said global warming is a myth, I said the idea that cars are warming the earth is a myth.  First of all, you have to do exactly that - decide whether the world is warming or not.  Compared to when?  If you take the last 30 years www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures you'll see that we're pretty much back to where we started from anyway.  Bet you won't hear that on the BBC!  This is an indisputable fact based on the IPCC's very own measurements of temperature.  So what if we compare the last 2,000 years? www.drroyspencer.com/.../2000-years-of-global-temperatures  Oh dear, again, back to where we were 1,200 years ago - or rather not as warm as then even.  But what if you ignore the fact that the last peak in temperature was eleven years ago (yes, really) and say that the past 11 years is just a cooling blip?  Ok then, so let's go with that.  Let's say that we've been warming, and forget a time frame to compare it to (don't know why you'd want to do that, but let's go with it).  The amount of warming caused by CO2 (if you accept that it does) is 37.25% (according to the IPCC).  Cars are responsible for 6.75% of global CO2 emissions, so the amount of warming that could possibly be attributed to cars is 2.5%.  However, since those figures are heavily biased with no time frame, no allowance for the urban heat island effect, no negative feedback from CO2 in the atmosphere and subject to a wide error margin, then it can be said with an excellent degree of probability that cars contribute nothing to warming.

It must be remembered that you first of all have to choose a time frame in which you will measure the Earth's temperature.  That's difficult enough.  Then you have to say that any warming within that time frame IS being caused by man-made emissions of gases.  Again, fraught with diificulty as we don't understand climate science - as it is THE most chaotic science.  Then you have to believe that these gases will cause warming - not cooling (with negative feedbacks).  Then  you have to ignore possible natural factors (like the Sun).  When you've done all that and still believe that we are warming the planet, then you come down to cars themselves as a contributor - which is 2.5%.  As that figure is so small and subject to a large error margin THEN you can say that cars have no effect on warming.  And that statement carries more probability than the statement that they do.  You won't hear the Greens tell you this because they don't want people to know it.  You won't hear the government tell you this because they want to tax you on it.  You won't hear anyone on the BBC tell you this because their journalists are grossly ignorant.  You won't hear scientists tell you this because thousands of them are getting massive grants to say the opposite, and their jobs depend on it.  Some scientists WILL admit this but they are soon berated by those ignorant of what they're saying.

ALL the figures and stats are available on the internet for free - you just have to look.

drivenfromtherearplease July 14, 2009 1:14 AM

Ah, didn't see this thread. Read the "No Global Warming-Official thread" for more info and a more balanced approach. Throughout all his diatribe he forgets to acknowledge that CO2 production is a result of waste.

So if the planet is warming or not (and as can be proved either way with figures) the less CO2 we produce, the less we are wasting in our processes and our resources last longer.

Seriously if you are interested read the thread as there are more links.

The subject is too large to delve into fully on the Autocar site unfortunatly.

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