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ordinary bloke January 13, 2009 11:03 PM

"One industry boss told me that US car sales were currently so low that if they stayed at that level it would take 25 years to replace the whole car park – to swap the entire fleet of cars on US roads with new metal. That’s a situation which is clearly unsustainable, he told me – the industry needs a figure of roughly half that to sustain itself."

Can't help feeling that perhaps we should all aim to get used to changing our cars less often. Don't get me wrong, I DO enjoy driving (even in the UK) and have enjoyed reading motoring magazines and other sources about new cars since I was a kid, but don't we have too many cars in the world already (and many, many, many more if Chinese and Indian markets do what American and European markets have done in the past). If this economic downturn (I hear it's not a DEPRESSION according to our Great Leader) does anything positive it might force all manufacturers to make cars that we, their customers, really want and not just what they want to sell. Here's hoping.

Casanova January 14, 2009 8:04 AM

"That’s a situation which is clearly unsustainable, he told me – the industry needs a figure of roughly half that to sustain itself."

It's only unsustainable for them at the moment, because of the over-expansion of the bloated US giants.  Agreeing with the post above - I would argue that it is more unsustainable from a resources perspective to aim to replace the entire US fleet of cars in 12.5 years.

horseandcart January 14, 2009 10:49 AM

The corresponding '25 years to replace the whole car park'(parc?) figure applied to the UK market would give annual new car sales of about one million - from a car parc of around 25m vehicles in UK. 2008's sales figure, for passenger cars, was around 2.1m, and SMMT predicts around 1.8m for 2009. I think it'll come in around 1.5m, so somewhere between the unsustainable, doomsday scenario of the industry boss and the double that figure he's hoping for, for 2010 onwards.

In line with what the first two commentors have said one cannot but see the crass stupidity of political leaders and other vested interests who up until late 2008 called for massive reduction of all carbon combusting, 20% by 2020 and 80% by 2050, self-mandated for UK, whilst now feverishly calling for economic stimuli and taxpayer funded multi-bllion bailout packages at the first sign of reduction of tax revenues from a collapsing economy. Which is it boys and girls, Kyoto on stilts by 2020/2050, with associated back to the Stone Age industrial activity or money printing to fend off the collapse of the real economy from last 20 years unsustainable, debt-financed activity levels and the likely ensuing social disorder which will threaten the politicians' assured pensions and general privileged existences? We all know which will out.

W124 January 15, 2009 3:54 PM

On the subject of the cars I have to agree with Mr Cropley.  The Americans (bar Chrysler - let's just call them the big 2) have come out fighting - the Converj I really like - It maybe true that the FCX is a better long term solution but that's exactly what it is - long term.  I really hope that the packaging of the Voltec (not sure if that's how you spell it) powertrain will allow for a return to classic , long and sleek Caddy styling.  I've got to say that Obama's new Limo is a missed opportunity on that score.  It should have been proportioned along the lines of the Rolls Phantom.  It looks very, very sinister to me.

Unsprung January 15, 2009 5:55 PM

[ W124 January 15, 2009 3:54 PM -- Obama's new Limo is a missed opportunity on that score.  It should have been proportioned along the lines of the Rolls Phantom.  It looks very, very sinister to me. ]

To be clear, Obama has neither ordered nor specified this vehicle (and its clones and supporting vehicles).  This limo has been a years-long project, and is unrelated to the political winds of US government.  This may be obvious to most people on this forum, but mainstream media reports sometimes imply otherwise.

Also: issues of security, survivability, airlift, and communications have taken precedence over any sort of opportunity to be fashionable in terms of design.  For better or for worse, the new US limo was not produced for, say, the PM of Portugal.

W124 January 15, 2009 6:31 PM

Fair point.  It's a bit scary looking though.  Very Bush.

Unsprung January 15, 2009 11:02 PM

[ W124 January 15, 2009 6:31 PM  Fair point.  It's a bit scary looking though.  Very Bush. ]

Sounds like you'll want to abandon this motoring site to devote more time to posting agitprop over at The Guardian.

W124 January 15, 2009 11:53 PM

I was merely commenting on the somewhat martial style of the new presidential limo.