Confidential

Things look up for Bugatti

Chas Hallett — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 09:00:36 GMT

How do you top the Veyron? After spending the weekend at the Pebble Beach Concours – where the new Grand Sport was unveiled – I can report it’s a question that Bugatti’s senior execs are wrestling with.

One thing's for sure, the company isn't in the mood for downsizing or replacing the 253mph supercar with a pale imitation of its predecessor.

Boss Franz-Josef Paefgen admitted to us in Pebble Beach this weekend that the Veyron replacement would still be the 'ultimate'. After all, Veyron buyers are 'extreme people' he told me.

What's not certain is that the next Veyron will be another mid-engined sports car. Some high ups in the Bugatti quite fancy a front-engined car, maybe even a four-seater. That would, of course, be in keeping with the company's heritage. It would also get around the problem of trying to outdo the Veyron. They could even use some Bentley bits and pieces such as the platform from the next Arnage.

Then again is Bugatti's future just about doing one car? One of the big cheeses was musing about the possibility of his company developing two separate models. Which is an interesting idea: but isn’t it hard enough to sell one million quid supercar?

No doubt that speculation is going to carry on right up to 2012 when the Veyron is due to bite the bullet. I’m just pleased that Bugatti has a future at all, because there’s been lots of talk of it shutting up shop when all the Veyrons have been built.

The Veyron is outrageous in every way - but who can honestly say they'd rather the company went back into hibernation?

Technorati Tags: Bugatti Veyron Grand Sport Veyron Pebble Beach Bentley Arnage Franz-Josef Paefgen

Enzo Ferrari – 20 years on

Julian Rendell — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 09:44:46 GMT

Today is a sad anniversary for the car industry: the 20^th anniversary of Enzo Ferrari’s death in 1988.

In many ways, the company that Ferrari founded has changed enormously in the last two decades, but in others it’s stayed pretty much exactly the same – not least the continuation of the mystique that he created around the brand.

Back in 1988 the mainstay in the range was the 328, a car that held Enzo’s tradition for idiosyncratic handling close to its heart. At the other end of the range, Enzo’s final pet project – the F40 – was already on its way to becoming the most successful supercar of all time (1300 were produced before replacement in 1992).

There’s nothing in today’s range to compare with the F40, but the 430 and 599 are brilliant cars and the 612 has a breadth of capability that no other rival can match.

Behind the scenes, Fiat can take plenty of credit for this, thanks to its careful stewardship backing the right management team. Back in 1988 when globalisation was in its infancy, Fiat already owned 50 per cent of Ferrari it was the natural home for Enzo’s 40 per cent holding. At the time there were doubts that ownership by such a huge industrial conglomerate would work out. History shows it to have been the perfect fit.

I suspect that if Enzo were around now, he would probably be shocked at the progress made with today’s range and their cutting-edge aluminium chassis and electronic gizmos, which are light years from the artisan-era he felt comfortable with.

At heart Enzo was an engine man, so by contrast I’d also guess that he’d be knocked-out by Ferrari’s current range of brilliant engines. That said, as a deeply conservative man, I doubt he would warm to many of Ferrari’s ostentatious customers, either.

Still, he was ever the consummate businessman with an eye on the till and would no doubt be extremely pleased at the vast piles of cash being generated by the business that bears his name – and which is still being used to help pay for the Formula One team that was his passion.

Il Commendatore may be gone, but his spirit definitely lives on.

Technorati Tags: Enzo Ferrari F40 328 F430 599 612

Volvo: key question

Hilton Holloway — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 09:26:45 GMT

More than 20 years ago, a couple of senior Volvo engineers travelled to Audi’s Ingolstadt HQ, bought an Audi 90 20v saloon and took it back to Gothenburg.

Taking Audi’s engineering as an inspiration (front and four-wheel drive, five-cylinder engines in 10v and 20v form), Volvo planned to modernise its image and engineering, and head upmarket. But two decades on, its global sales are stuck at around 420,000. And even board members lament that its customer base still wants simple, unflashy, reliable cars.

A decade of mould-breaking design has failed to change perceptions when faced with the longevity of 240 and 700 and 900-series estate cars, which still litter the streets in key markets like the UK and California.

Volvo’s ad campaigns also bravely – and cleverly - try and sex up the company’s load-lugging image by spinning it out as the brand of choice for cool outdoorsy types. When the reality, for the V70, is probably more prosaic. But the image shift has proved elusive.

So, despite interest in Volvo from developing market companies, Ford isn’t going to sell its Swedish subsidiary. Instead, Ford HQ is going to send in its best brains from its highly successful European arm to rethink Volvo’s failing drive upmarket.

Despite its best efforts over the last decade or so, it looks like Volvo has not properly bridged the premium gap. XC90 aside, it cannot get customers to spend big money on its models. One Volvo boss told me that he wished he had BMW’s customers, who would tick all the options boxes and update their car every couple of years.

Volvo’s ambition to charge, say, Audi prices is probably is unfulfilled. In truth, the company is caught dangling between the two main markets: premium and upmarket mainstream.

For example, today’s base diesel V70 costs £25k. Compare that to a £27k base model diesel Audi A6 Avant and an equivalent VW Passat estate at just over £19k. Both outsell the V70.

In future Volvo will have to work more closely with Ford on its models, saving money by reducing the amount of unique engineering. And that would allow the showroom prices to fall so they are just a bit more expensive than VW.

Making future products more closely related to Ford models, also opens up the possibility of building Volvos in Ford’s US factories, something that would result in transformation of profit margins in the US market.

The upshot is that Ford wants to see annual output boosted to 600,000 units and beyond. Losing some autonomy will be the price Volvo pays to get back into the black.

Are friends electric?

Richard Bremner — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 09:07:50 GMT

Cute though it appears, you might be a bit crestfallen to learn that Nissan thinks the future of the car is signalled by this strange black and white Cube prototype, that gets around using an electric motor. This does not look a car likely to excite.

Your thinking might change, though, when you discover that it hauls itself to 40mph as quickly as a powerful V6 saloon, and that the production car this engineering mule will sire may be good for 60mph in around five seconds.

Nissan’s production electric car will not look like a Cube either, though it could be similarly sized. Instead, it will be purpose-built, and of a striking style designed to take advantage of the compact motor and the need for excellent aerodynamics. It will also be the first of an electric range that could include sports models and an MPV.

The Cube is powered by three 100kg lithium-ion battery packs (that’s heavy, but they’ll get lighter, says Nissan), and they propel it in near-surreal silence. And it’s a cinch to drive, with no gears to shift. The Cube’s 107bhp motor manages 62mph in 13 seconds, and fades noticeably beyond this in the battle to reach its 85mph maximum, but it’s low-down potency is encouraging.

Like all EVs, range remains an issue - this mule manages 75 miles, and Nissan is aiming for only 100 from the production version. Which is why its negotiations to persuade countries, cities and governments to support its initiative with infrastructure and tax incentives are vital.

Israel, Denmark and Portugal have signed up, and talks with the UK government have been ‘constructive.’ Give it a decade, and your car could well be plug-and-play.

Technorati Tags: Nissan EV Nissan Cube Hybrid electric MPV

Car sales meltdown: don’t panic. Yet.

Andrew Frankel — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 14:11:31 GMT

Figures for UK car sales in July have just been published and, to be honest, I’ve seen prettier train wrecks.

I’m sure times have been tougher before, but I’m not sure the market has ever turned quite so squarely on its heels and started marching quite so swiftly in the other direction. Overall the market is 13 percent down on the same month last year but many big names were off by over 20 percent and a few luxury brands are selling more than 40 percent fewer cars than they were this time last year.

Car dealers have not often figured high on my list of people to feel sorry for in any given week, but at the moment my thoughts are with them. Globally the situation looks little better: you know things are bad when BMW starts issuing profit warnings, something it did as recently as last Friday.

In the circumstances, crumbs of comfort are harder to find than ever, which means it’s more important than ever to go looking for them. And this month, you can find them in the most unlikely places. Alfa Romeo, for instance, improved its UK sales by nearly 17 percent, an outstanding achievement in this climate, but that seems like small fry compared to the almost 30 percent upturn in Jaguar’s business as the excellent XF replaces the S-type. After so many years charting its agonising downward spiral, it is joyous to see the trace kick up again.

But even this (and, indeed the astonishing 64 percent increase in Volvo sales) can’t mask the cold truth that a bad market seems to be getting rapidly worse.

Rightly the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (the body that represents car makers in this country) urges us to treat these numbers with some caution: July is always a relatively quiet month for car sales, as is August. So it won’t be until early October, when the figures for all-important September registrations come in that we’ll know for sure if we’re dealing with an uncomfortable but manageable slow down, or a market in headlong retreat.

Until then, the wait for car makers, importers and dealers up and down the country will seem interminable.

Technorati Tags: UK car sales BMW Jaguar XF SMMT Alfa Romeo

New Golf: we've been here before

Steve Cropley — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 09:12:04 GMT

We’ve been here five times before. This is the sixth launch of a VW Golf I’ve covered since 1974, and every time there has been a replacement, there has been an accompanying wail from critics that the new model “doesn’t go far enough”.

From time to time, I’ve even written those words myself, though these days - and this time - I’ve decided VW gets it about right, given that they have so much to lose if they don’t.

Inside the company there’s a deep knowledge that a fine balance must be struck between the new and the traditional, and the company’s designers and management fret and fidget with dozens of iterations until they get it right.

Not that every Golf is as good as the last. The star models, which VW is strenuously trying to match this time, are widely regarded as being Giugiaro’s seminal MkI (a little of whose freshness, lightness and simplicity of line has been echoed in every succeeding model) and Dr Piech’s class-busting MkIV (which appeared soon after Ford launched the Focus to bring a new level of refinement and quality to cars in this class). The latest car tries especially hard on both of these traditional fronts: simplicity of design and superior quality.

We’ll need to see and drive production cars to know for sure, but to me it looks like succeeding. The new Golf, which once again “doesn’t go far enough”, will be heading again for its natural slot as Europe’s best-selling car.

Interesting to note, however, that though the latest Golf seems a simple answer to some critics, it has already been the object of huge controversy inside the company.

The car you see was conceived in little more than 18 months. A previous project, fronted by design team leader Murat Gunak, was abruptly binned when Audi boss Dr Martin Winterkorn took the reins of the whole group and ordered a radical change to VW’s design course.

Former Alfa/Seat/Audi designer Walter de Silva took overall command, Gunak left the company, and the Golf VI you see here was brought to life.

In particular, it ditched the deep-grille nose treatment seen on the Iroc concept car (precursor of the recently launched Scirocco) and brought a simpler, more familiar grille treatment. Half-close your eyes and you soon see that it harks back, quite clearly, to 1974. Like I say, we’ve been here before...

Sales collapse Stateside

Hilton Holloway — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 09:26:18 GMT

What do Mercedes, Mini and Nissan have in common? They were the only three car makers to see sales rise in the US market last month.

July was nothing short of a sales blood bath in America. Chrysler’s sales fell 34 per cent compared with July 2007. GM was down 32 per cent, Ford down 21 per cent. Even impregnable Toyota was down 18 per cent. Over the whole of the first half of 2008, the numbers are not quite so terrifying, but then the sales slow-down only now seems to be gathering pace.

The pace of the downturn is such that some analysts are warning that General Motors is burning cash at such a rapid rate that it could be in really serious trouble in just 12 months. The only hope is that the new car market stabilises.

And there’s good and bad news for the UK’s car makers. Mini sales are up 32 per cent, Rolls Royce was up 5 per cent and Jaguar crept up 2 per cent on the back of the XF.

But then again the pound is still very strong against the dollar, making it hard to turn a profit on US sales. So BMW isn’t going to up production for US-bound Minis, despite the demand. There are more profitable markets to be serviced. On the other hand, Bentley sales are off 28 per cent, Aston Martin by 18 percent and Land Rover around 32 per cent. It’s a worst-case scenario: the strong pound renders profits wafer-thin and the sinking American economy is hammering sales volumes.

Cash burning at Ford and GM will also have a serious effect on new product development in Europe. Sources say that future EU-market models are already being culled as the head office drowns in red ink. The old cliché that if the US sneezes, the UK catches a cold has never been truer. But it seems that the wider European car industry is also set for a dose too.

Technorati Tags: Chrysler Toyota Mercedes-Benz USA Aston Martin GM Ford

Longbridge rises from the ashes

Richard Bremner — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 12:17:47 GMT

It seems unlikely, but the former MG Rover plant at Longbridge is producing cars again.

For now it’s only the venerable MG TF, with production kicking off with a limited run of 500 cars that, apart from fresh paint, wheels and headlamps, look unchanged fro the TF that was died alongside MG Rover in 2005.

According to Nanjing, this is the first of several MGs that will be built at the much-compacted factory, and the next models promise to be substantially more youthful than the TF - possibly even brand new. Longbridge will not only be an MG production site for Nanjing but an engineering centre and a bridgehead into Europe. All great news if you’re an MG fan, and if you wanted to see at least something surviving from the collapse of MG Rover in 2005.

But you wonder how robust these plans are when you see the rather lame advertising for the reincarnated TF - the copywriters clearly struggling to find a way of announcing the return of a 13 year old product – and the website isn’t vastly more encouraging.

Given that the TF is now being advertised for sale you’d expect to be able to register for information, but the ‘enquire’ page of the site is apparently being updated. A pretty terrible way of dealing with potential sales leads.

Another page touts for engineering work from businesses who might want to use the plant’s rolling road, Japanese car importers and gas converters among those invited to rent the facility. All of which makes for somewhat forlorn reading if you know much of the history of this car plant, once the largest in Europe.

As someone who previously worked for new MG’s distant predecessor, and who hoped (with naïve desperation) that MG Rover would survive after BMW cut it loose, signs of life at Longbridge are great to see. But there can be few car industry watchers who won’t need an awful lot of convincing that this enterprise is going to survive this time around.

Yet Nanjing, which bought MG, is now owned by SAIC, China’s biggest car manufacturer and fellow buyers of the rump of the MG Rover business. This is an outfit with the muscle to make MG work, and from this faltering start we may yet be surprised. I’d love to see it happen.

Technorati Tags: Longbridge MG Rover MG TF Nanjing SAIC China

DSG: double trouble?

Chas Hallett — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 16:40:53 GMT

It's obvious why car makers are keen on double-clutch gearboxes. If you keep it in 'D' it feels more or less like a normal auto, yet has fuel economy and emissions that are far closer to a manual 'box.

What's more they are invariably equipped with steering wheel buttons or paddles for a DIY shift and so can be sold as a 'sporty' option and we can be charged accordingly.

It's this last point that probably explains why the proliferation of new double-clutch systems this year has largely been fitted to high performance cars and it just so happens that I've driven most of them in the past two weeks: the Mitsubishi Evo X, the Nissan GTR, the Porsche 911 PDK and BMW M3.

I've come away with mixed impressions. The Nissan and Porsche systems are brilliant (if ever so slightly anodyne), but the other two just feel half-baked by comparison.

And it was the M3's system that disappointed me the most as its changes were neither as swift nor as smooth as you'd expect or desire. I'm something of a two-pedal fan but I'd have the manual M3 everytime.

No surprise that certain systems are better than others - why should double-clutch boxes be any different from other systems?

It just got me thinking whether high-performance cars are the best showcase for such systems. After all, VW's DSG system works brilliantly on a Golf diesel and the new and similar system on the Focus diesel is even better.

On those cars there are tangible benefits to ordering this option. But on specialist stuff like the 911 and M3 it's harder to see the point.

I've got no doubt that double-clutchers are desirable for the future of the family hatch and I'm sure that I'll be signing up for one in the not too distant. But I've sampled enough to think that some cars should at least keep the option of three pedals.

Technorati tags: Porsche 911 PDK BMW M3 Nissan GTR DSG Volkswagen Golf

Lotus comes back from the brink

Richard Bremner — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 11:48:13 GMT

It’s great to see Lotus gathering strength. Not only has the company just unveiled the Evora, an all-new model taking it into a new market segment, but the company is also making money again.

Lotus’s history is peppered with various financial setbacks, and the company seems to flirt with disappearance every few years. But it’s only now that we’re hearing about just how close the company came to shutting down its excellent – and surely essential – engineering division.

Company boss Mike Kimberley has revealed that the previous management regime actually considered ‘rolling up’ the engineering consultancy business. Let’s not forget that this is the same team that played a major roll in the development of the Aston Martin DB9, Vantage and DBS, engineered various engines for GM, tuned the chassis of the previous Astra and its VXR variant and which has done pioneering work in the development of active suspension and active noise suppression systems.

Kimberley obviously can’t talk about Lotus Engineer’s current projects, but the fact it’s on a recruitment drive for 130 new engineers indicates that business is booming. Catastrophe averted, then. But the question is whether Kimberley and his team can manage to break the painful boom-and-bust cycle that has characterised this unique manufacturer for so long.

Technorati tags: Lotus Evora, Lotus Esprit, Lotus Engineering, Mike Kimberley

The Blue Oval finally goes global

Hilton Holloway — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 09:14:36 GMT

Ford has released its financial results for the second quarter of 2008. In the 12 weeks between April and June, it managed to lose $1.38bn. And in order to keep its books in trim, it decided to reduce the value of its assets in North America by $5.3bn.

The company admitted that the $8.7bn loss was the biggest quarter plunge into the red in Ford's history. It wasn't all bad news. Ford Europe doubled profits to $582m and Ford did well in Asia and South America. Volvo, though, lost $120m.

Ford boss Alan Mulally said he expected the US economy to pick-up in 2010 and that the Blue Oval has $38 billion in ready financing to keep it going through this serious downturn.

The company also says that it expects the shift from big SUVs and trucks - the sort of cars that used to make huge profits for Ford - to become a permanent feature of the US market. It sounds bad. But Ford also had a compelling story to tell about how it expects to get out this fix.

By 2010 just as the upturn is expected Ford will have launched the new Fiesta and current Focus in the US. In the same year it also promises a new 'whitespace' small vehicle: my guess is a small SUV based on the Fiesta. Indeed, so dramatic is the dash for frugal models, Ford's plant in Wayne, Michigan will shift from building the giant Ford Expedition and Lincoln Navigator SUVs to building Focus-based vehicles.

Ford has long dreamt of the global vehicle that can be sold, with minimum modifications, around the world. The 1993 Mondeo was codenamed CDW 27 which, decoded, meant it was in the C/D size class and a World vehicle. Unfortunately, the US Mondeo wasn't a hit.

But now, thanks to a merging of global tastes and the 'One Ford global product development vision', Ford should be positioned to build a million vehicles each year on the new Fiesta platform and a staggering two million on the Focus's C-car platform.

Within five years, Ford's global Mondeo-size vehicles will all be built on the same chassis, as will Ford's commercial van line-up. The rewards for a successful global platform strategy could be huge. Derek Kuzak, Ford's VP for Global Product Development, says one in four of all vehicles sold today is Focus-sized. That should translate to an incredible annual global market of 25 million vehicles by 2012.

Barring any more economic shocks, Ford could be on the verge of finally securing solid foundations for the future.

Big in Japan

Peter Nunn — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 11:22:27 GMT

There are many myths about the Japanese car market. One is that it’s a formidably tough market to crack and even if you get in, it’s difficult and expensive to sell cars here.

Tell that to the Germans. Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes are making a killing here and have been for years. Add Audi to the mix and the Teutonic big four have 60 per cent of an import market now worth a quarter of a million units a year. Nice work if you can get it.

It doesn’t end there, either. The Golf has been Japan’s number one import for aeons, but the 3-Series is now coming up in second place.

Just as in the rest of the world, the Germans have the products and image to woo buyers. They have the history and the reputation that helps to build up trust – but imports of course come at a price: a Golf for less than £12K sounds amazing until you discover you can buy an Auris here for £7688…

As for the others, Peugeot, Mini and Volvo have consistently been among the import front-runners. Rover and its various antecedents were also big in Japan, believe it or not, and Land Rover still has a big fan base.

But it’s the VWs, Mercs and BMWs that have the inside line. BMW has just launched the X6 here and it would be a surprise if it wasn’t another Bavarian cash cow.

Our non-driving PM visits London show

Chas Hallett — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 09:29:59 GMT

Gordon Brown dropped into the motor show this morning but he had only one thing on his mind: the environment. He marched straight to the Opel Flextreme concept nodded approvingly and then disappeared off to the Act on CO2 stand to get tips on greener driving.Odd considering he doesn't actually have a driving licence - but there you go.

But a few hacks buzzing around him, myself included, did manage to throw him a few questions - but to each he replied that he is commited to a low carbon future.

That commitment extended to his assertion the other day that we'll all be in hybrids and electrics by 2020.I asked GM boss Bob Lutz what he thought of that prediction. 'Frankly ludicrous' was his answer.

I don't believe everything that Maximum Bob says but I think I'm with him on this one rather than our increasingly car hating PM.

Technorati tags: Gordon Brown Opel Flextreme Bob Lutz London motor show

The Insignia flies in

Chas Hallett — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 09:15:27 GMT

My motor show started on Monday lunchtime at GM's shindig to show off the Insignia.

A pretty impressive spectacle it was too. Two years ago GM showed us the Corsa being flown down the Thames under a helicopter. But this time round the Insignia dropped to earth from a capsule suspended 100 feet or so above the river bank right next to Tower Bridge.

It drew masses of crowds and had done all weekend apparently as the capsule and car inside had been buried just under the crane. It was only 'excavated' and winched up on Sunday night.

When it finally fell to earth I got my first chance to see the Vectra replacement properly. It's another new car that looks far more glamorous in the metal than any photo. So good, in fact, that you could put virtually any upmarket badge on the bonnet and you wouldn't know any different. Same goes for the cabin which is a massive step forward for Vauxhall in design and quality.

My instant verdict is that if it's close to the Mondeo to drive it will be a real winner. I'd be a bit worried if I was selling Audis against it to.

Technorati tags: Vauxhall Insignia Tower Bridge General Motors

Behind every great racing driver...

Steve Cropley — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 11:30:00 GMT

On a trip to the Scottish Borders a couple of weeks ago, to test the revitalised and much improved Lotus Europa, I had dinner with an old friend, Ian Scott-Watson.

You might not have heard of him, but he was the bloke who gave the great Scottish champion, Jim Clark, both cars to drive and crucial encouragement in his first few years. There’s a tale about Scott-Watson, a perfectly decent driver, practising for a sprint in his DKW, then handing it to Clark to have a go as an afterthought. Clark was so quick that the stewards felt they had to ‘have a word’ to Scott-Watson about sandbagging...

There have been lots of Clark books over the years, starting with one called “Jim Clark At The Wheel”, by Graham Gauld, which was the bible in my youth. It told a tale of normal bloke with driving skills far beyond those of great drivers, whose achievements were based on smoothness, accuracy, consistency and being easy on the car.

Like most of my generation, I was fascinated by tales of Clark doing the same number of laps as his team mate yet being both quicker and easier on the tyres. With Stirling Moss, who had similar priorities, Clark changed the face of driving.

Here’s the point. While I was in Duns, Ian Scott-Watson told me he’d been working on a memoir — his recollections of the high-points in Jim Clark’s career, but also his recollection of dealing with Colin Chapman at Lotus (ISW bought a succession of early cars to race) and of the whole motor racing scene (early on, he was JC’s manager).

In most cases, I’d say there had been enough written about Clark to cover it, but now I find I’m impatient to hear from the man who knows most about his the great Scottish champion’s career, because he was there for much of it, and had a big hand in organising it. Publishers awake!