Tue
Nov 10 2009

The electric bubble will burst

Colin Goodwin
There has never been a more interesting time to write about cars. Yes, we had interesting alternative fuel concept cars to admire and drive ten and twenty years ago but in the main they were nothing more than occasional distractions from the daily business for us and for their manufacturers.

But today when we drive something futuristic like the Peugeot BB1 we know that the future is only a few years away and that cars involving some of this technology will make it to the showroom.



But I have a prediction to make. I suspect that around 2012-2014, when production electric cars will be coming en masse from Renault, Mitsubishi, Mercedes, Mini and others, we will have a cooling off period on electric cars. It’ll only be temporary, until new battery technology gives us ranges of 400 miles or more (which seems likely around 2020), but it will happen.

Customers will realise that the economics don’t work too well and that having a vehicle that needs charging after 100 miles or so is a nuisance. But more than any shortcomings with electric cars, it is ongoing improvements in internal combustion-engined vehicles that will put temporary mockers on electric power.

Already dozens of cars can easily average over 50mpg; quite a few over 60mpg and a handful even more. And that’s after the industry has spent only the last couple of years really making an effort. Within a couple of years we’ll have cars achieving even better economy. We have barely scratched the surface.

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About Colin Goodwin

Our agony uncle joined us in 1996. He's a veteran of the odd hair-raising stunt and road trip, but is now more likely to be found asleep underneath his Porsche 911 or his Merc 280SL.

Comments

CADMonkey November 10, 2009 11:25 AM

Really? Based on the improvements in efficiency of the internal cumbustion engine over the last 100 years versus the improvements in battery technology in the last 10 years, my money is on electric. Plus, how many people do you know who commute more than 200 miles everyday? I think that getting used to plugging the car in at home every evening will become as natural as plugging your phone in every evening. Perhaps ultra-efficient ICE-EV hybrids will answer the question of extended journey times, but in the meantime we can't simple dismiss the technology based on what we know today.

Dave52 November 10, 2009 11:26 AM

"I suspect that around 2012-2014, when production electric cars will be coming en masse from Renault, Mitsubishi, Mercedes, Mini and others, we will have a cooling off period on electric cars. It’ll only be temporary, until new battery technology gives us ranges of 400 miles or more (which seems likely around 2020), but it will happen."

and I think you're right

nicfaz November 10, 2009 11:35 AM

I agree also - I regularly travel more than 200 miles in a day and won't buy an electric car until they can deal with that.  Of course the ideal will be fast charging or battery swapping, at which point it matters less how far they will go on a single charge.

mail@davidlong.info November 10, 2009 11:46 AM

Surely it's all a nonsense anyway - and will remain so until we find a way to generate clean ie 'green' electricity without consuming dwindling fossil fuels and can manufacture batteries which are not only efficient but can be recycled endlessly and/or disposed off ethically.

Old Toad November 10, 2009 11:57 AM

The only true green car is Fred Flintstones ok I am having a laugh.

However my point is do we really need a car for those short journeys that battery cars seem to excell at? My point is if we all used cars less then emissions would drop at no cost to the owners.

jackjflash November 10, 2009 12:01 PM

They can deal with that, the Ampera has unlimited range if you fill it regularly with petrol. When you are not driving 200 miles a day you won’t use a drop, the best of both worlds.

jackjflash November 10, 2009 12:19 PM

As far as battery disposal is concerned, they will still be about 70% efficient when their automotive use expires. The second-hand batteries can be used to store electricity for your home or power generation plants. Fossil fuel can generate power only one way, electricity can be generated in a variety of ways. No matter how efficient they make ICE, it will never be as efficient as an electric motor. Increasing the energy density of batteries to compete with fossil fuel is closer than you think, so all you “The car will never replace the horse” crowd be prepared for change, it doesn’t hurt, I promise.

N0077666 November 10, 2009 12:20 PM

"However my point is do we really need a car for those short journeys that battery cars seem to excell at? My point is if we all used cars less then emissions would drop at no cost to the owners."

I agree totally!  Living in Nottingham with an excellent tram network thats growing, there really is no need to drive a car round the main city areas, hop on a tram for the big chunk then walk the rest.  Or if its a nice day use the bike.  For me personally I live right in the city centre, so all the main shops and bars really are a 2 minute walk, 5 at most, and I can hop through shops and malls to keep out the rain as much as possible.  For my weekly shop there is a tram stop right outside my flat which stops right outside a certain big green supermarket, which with the awful parking actually saves a massive headache if going by car.

For my commute I drive to Birmingham and back, or sometimes London, so at the moment electric cars just aint good enough, and a goo diesel is just as economical as a prius on the motorway!

Dave52 November 10, 2009 12:25 PM

Am I the only one who read what he wrote? He said there'd be a blip in interest, he didn't dismiss electric vehicles at all.

RacingPuma November 10, 2009 12:37 PM

I agree.

For most people, the car is a multi-purpose purchase.  Even if 90% of its use is short distance commuting, easily handled by an electric car, we only spend £20k+ because it can also take us away at the weekend or on holiday.

Look back to history - ordinary people didn't buy their first cars in the late '50's and '60's so that they could commute to work without having to stand on a filthy bus - they bought them to drive their families to the seaside or countryside.

I still believe that many people will spend most of their life savings, IF NECESSARY, on something that gives them freedom (as they did with Ladas, Trabants in the Eastern bloc), but NOT for a mere commuting tool.

The electric cars heading for production in the next 5 years are essentially utilitarian commuting tools - fine as a 2nd or 3rd car for many 2 or 3 car families but not a universal replacement for the internal combustion engined car.  I have serious doubts about how many people will be prepared to pay £20k plus for something that does little more than get them to and from work or the supermarket.

By around 2013 the choices will be vast - electric, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, diesel, petrol.  What we choose will depend crucially on the price of fuel by then (your guess is as good as mine).  For what it's worth, I think plug-in hybrids will be mainstream and diesels will have a much smaller market share.  Electric cars need another technological breakthrough before they will become mainstream.

whatdoiknow November 10, 2009 12:56 PM

What about chip fat?

Pol Medhi November 10, 2009 1:07 PM

I think neither electric nor ICE shall power our future automobiles. I have doubts for bio-fuel and even hydrogen. Each one of these has shortcomings. We must think of something out of the box.

Mihir Gadre November 10, 2009 1:08 PM

In the near future an ICE will just be an Optional extra for those looking for extended range.

Mihir Gadre

noluddite November 10, 2009 1:24 PM

Making predictions of this sort is very difficult. Just look at the cars of the future featured on Tomorrows World 25 years ago. However, there may be a great deal of disatisfaction as a result of Government incompetence.  At a time when they are about to provide subsidies to support the industry, they also announce that there will be an 'energy hole' in a few years time. Imagine how cheesed off you will be when you awake to find that your car didn't charge thanks to a power cut. Talk about a lack of 'joined up thinking', to use one of their own buzz phrases.

Custard33 November 10, 2009 2:02 PM

This is a fairish prediction from Colin, but I think the price of fuel, however fuel efficient cars have now become will become a deciding factor in this issue over the next few years.

When you are pay less than a pound or two for a 100+ mile range electric car to charge up or you wish to pay £20-£30+ for the price of refined petrol and diesel for the same sort of range, common sense will start to kick in... We will most likely adapt our driving needs because we will no longer wish to fill the pockets of the rich opec oil barons who are trying to get even richer so that they can retire before their dwindling supplies of oil finally run out!

I know that the price of electric will increase too, but it will not be anywhere as inflated as the price of petrol or diesel will become. We will also see govenments and climate change hippies putting major pressure on the car industry to conform and phase out our reliance on fossil fuels for transportation with clever new technology.

thenutthatholdsthewheel November 10, 2009 2:47 PM

I hope Colin is right.

Nevermind the environment, I just can't get enthused by electric cars.

There's nothing like the smell of hot oil and the noise of a petrol engine, we should just use them less.

androo November 10, 2009 2:56 PM

I think people, once they get their hands on smooth, quiet, mechanically simple electric cars and wave goodby to their local petrol station will suddenly wonder why they ever wanted anything else. It'll be like the time when we wondered how Apple cold make the battery last long enough in a device with a phone and a video iPod. In a way they didn't, but it didn't matter because people love the device enough and plugging it in becomes second nature. Electric cars are the automotive world's iPhone, but who'll be the Apple?

38carssofar November 10, 2009 3:35 PM

How will our dear Govt. cream off a tax as large as fuel duty if we all go electric ???

Leslie Brook November 10, 2009 4:15 PM

I live in an East London Street of Terraced Houses. No one has a garage and no one has any off street parking. Nearly every household has a car and many have two perhaps more.

How on earth could all those cars be connected to the mains each night? Will my street become an obstacle course of extension leads? Will our local Sub-Station blow up under the increased load? I think the infra-structure will need as much development as the cars themselves and needs to be in place in-time to accommodate early adopters.

racingboots November 10, 2009 6:40 PM

i find the thought of renault making electric cars hilarious , they can't even make electric windows that work properly!

CapsLock November 11, 2009 9:07 AM

you can see two forms establishing themselves, the Chevy Volt type (CV) and the battery type.  Algae is going to become the fuel source (inc. home generation with solar, wind etc) and also drawing from green sources such as wave/tide and wind farms etc; more people will be using buses and trains for a total mix of transportation.

As for electric cars and 100 miles ranges, I live 5 miles from the train station and use trains for long journey requirements, thus electric cars for me are great.

For long journey needs not using trains, ideally it would be electric but realistically (today) it will be diesel or a modern petrol (not Prius hybrid type); in the future long car journeys will be by electric car; at that point most people will eiether have a CV type or full electric.

MattDB November 12, 2009 3:10 PM

With the Renault idea of swapping battery packs, maybe you would own 2 packs and leave one on charge while you drive around with the other.

Some question who drives more than 200 miles a day but many do travel the length and bredth of the country for work and this range is not good enough.  You also have to consider that these battery packs create a lot of heat and battery packs under extreme pressure can melt and cause fires.

I still see fuel cells or range extenders as the interim solution, but 100% battery power is still way off for long distance and trans continental driving.

AutoeBid November 12, 2009 5:17 PM

According to the RAC, the average daily commute is 8.7 miles and averages 1,391 miles over a year.

Sainsbury’s has recently announced it will help to make London "the electric vehicle capital of Europe". I’m sure other organisations will follow shortly.

When you take the cost savings compaired to fuel (even cars offering over 50MPG) and the fact that the government will heavily subsidise electric cars, this will certainly generate more demand.

Let’s also not forget the likely increases due on fuel and C02 emissions over the next few years, before we start to compare the cost to our pockets.

As long as there are sufficient accessible power points then electric cars will start to gain considerable market share from 2012.

We have noticed the Toyota Prius has already become one of the most popular cars searched for on autoebid, therefore we fully expect to see electric cars becoming more and more integral to our lives.

pudtab December 5, 2009 2:06 PM

Nothing to do with the above but can't work out how to ask a question so this is a new problem for you - I have an 17" Alessio alloy wheel on my Mk. 3 mondeo that I have damaged/buckled and ideas where I can get it fixed - tried loads of places that I've e-mailed they don't answer so fingers crossed I will hear from you !!

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