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Mon
Oct 06 2008

Apocalypse now?

Andrew Frankel

Well, the figures we’ve all be waiting for are in and they’re at least as bad as many had feared.

Keys The car sales slowdown in July and August was worrying, but these are always low volume months as punters wait for the new September registration mark.

But today the numbers for this most critical month of the year have been published and there’s no hiding from them. Even the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders which represents the industry, generates the figures and can generally be relied up to find something positive to say, was relentlessly gloomy, not only about the numbers but the outlook too.

Unsurprisingly, the dedicated SUV manufacturers were among the worst performers, with Land-Rover losing all but half of its UK business compared to the same month last year, while Jeep was hit harder still, with sales a staggering 61 per cent down.

But the carnage didn’t end there, as a quick look at the luxury brands shows: Bentley, Lexus, Saab and Alfa Romeo all recorded sales drops of over 40 per cent, Porsche lost a third of its UK business and even BMW a quarter. As for the mainstreams, Citroen, Ford and Peugeot were all off by over 20 per cent while, somewhat terrifyingly, Renault did less than half the business in September 08 that it did in September 07.

By comparison, Vauxhall’s 16 per cent fall – which would be viewed as a calamity at any other time – seems something of a result.

There are very few rays of sunshine here, though both Audi and, most impressively, Jaguar continued to build sales, while quite a few people have suddenly concluded that a Smart might not be such a bad idea after all, causing sales to rise by over nine per cent.

What should we, the car buying public, do about this otherwise grim outlook?

One argument is to get out there and get buying and not just as a philanthropic gesture to a beleaguered industry. The first thing they teach you in economics is that supply and demand meet at the price and with a decimated demand, prices can only fall.

This may not be reflected in quoted retail prices but you can bet dealers will be keener now to do a deal than at any time in at least the last 15 years. So rather than looking at these figures as a reason to keep out of the market, those inclined towards a good haggle should at least consider whether they do not, in fact, represent a golden opportunity to get in.

 

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About Andrew Frankel

Talents are limited to "driving cars and writing English." In 19th century France he would, therefore, have been stuffed; as it is, Andrew's the perfect Autocar road test writer.

Comments

horseandcart October 6, 2008 5:08 PM

In answer to your question Andrew, yes, it is apocalyptic and it is now.

Elsewhere, earlier today I pointed out that Audi had bucked the trend. A response came from someone who deals with storage for unsold cars for Audi. He said they are overrun, have no more space and that the Audi dealers salesmen are telling him sales are down 80%. If this applies for a marque showing up comparatively well in SMMT's official figures you know that most all dealerships are stuffed full of unsold and pre-registered stock. Dealership bankruptcies can be only around the corner.

And did you notice Andrew that MINI was way down too for the first time? Appears that the little fashion car has finally taken a hit due to masses of estate agents being made redundant.

With the gravity of the situation it'll only be a matter of time before advertising and promotions by the manufacturers has to be cut back. Watch out car mags then too.

W124 October 6, 2008 5:34 PM

Crikey!

Not really surprising though is it?  It'll get worse before it gets better but get better it will.  

Peter Cavellini October 6, 2008 6:45 PM

YEAH ! there's an epocalyse now and shall i tell why- simple to many models of cars , somebody thinking up to many models within models (that we don't really need!).Of course its to late now we are all getting brainwashed into the ider we need these cars, i mean wh the hell wants a soft roader!? is tis incase you change your mind one day and suddenly drive up that steep ritted road you've been passing for the last 20 years- i think not- like i said to many models,some forward thinker should have thought of that , but they didn't .    

gordspa October 6, 2008 7:06 PM

i was in an audi dealer last week with my wife looking to change her range rover

to an A5. i remember thinking what a great deal id done when i bought her car with only 4k on the clock and under a year old for £45k .it came with overfinch alloys supercharger front end etc etc etc and the previous owner had shelled out over £62k.

well its just on 2 years old now with 18000 miles on the clock and the audi dealer rang to say the best bid he,d received for it was £21k !!! i think we,ll be keeping it now for a very long time ! and with values plummeting like that who is going to want to change ? its a vicious circle

theoriginalshoe October 6, 2008 10:53 PM

gordspa, welcome to the forum mate.

I can't resist saying, though, that you're not getting any sympathy in this corner: you had it coming when you bought that Rangie ;)

FWIW, my advice is to cut your losses and get out now: that thing sure ain't gonna appreciate over the next few years...

Geetee40 October 7, 2008 1:01 PM

"There are very few rays of sunshine here, though both Audi and, most impressively, Jaguar continued to build sales"

Really have we got the blinkers on? Jaguar's sales were appalling last year as they were getting the XF launched and the S-Type market was bottoming out. Do you have any further data to see how the model comparions are YoY?

Straff October 7, 2008 1:22 PM

Sadly... well said Geetee40. I too remember Jaguar's figures were disastrous last year at this time. Saying they're up a few percent this year is like claiming the weather's good because at least its not snowing.

Lies, damn lies and statistics...

All those years waving goodbye to manufacturing industry, selling off energy companies, relying on the leisure industry and telling everyone "spend, borrow, spend, borrow, spend - everything's great..." is biting us now and how.

horseandcart October 7, 2008 2:33 PM

GeeTee40, you're right and it should have gone without saying by the Autocar reporter in the first instance. At Jaguar Land Rover it's solely the XF model that's earning its keep and seemingly holding up 3 main plants and 16,000 workers. A state of affairs that cannot continue. Large job cuts or major taxpayer bailout under 'green' catchall guise.

As to sales figures breakdown by model for each brand I believe it is available from the SMMT, but they charge steeply for it. How very English. In Germany, where they have to count up to higher numbers, car magazines like AutoBild give exhaustive accounts of sales figures for each model, every month, with data supplied directly by the Kraftfahrzeungbundeamt(KBA.de, Flensburg), all freely available online to read.

Germany Aug 2008 registrations:

www.autobild.de/.../hitliste-august-2008_783340.html

sales Jan-Aug 2008

XF 1,068(n/a YoY)

XF 682(-10% YoY)

X-Type 477(+2% YoY)

XJ 245(-33% YoY)

S-Type 266(-64% YoY)

Geetee40 October 7, 2008 4:24 PM

horseandcart, and sadly it won't just stop in the Midlands/Halewood, as the lack of throughput at JLR have a knock-on effect to the other manufacturing locations in the UK that produce their powertrains. even if they reduce interst rates it probably won't be enough; maybe they need to look at this showroom tax again. Or maybe they need to tax TFL and other county councils more for running busses that seem to produce more black soot than a coal fired power station.

Can someone remind me, or is it still that 1 in 7 jobs in Europe are related to the Motor industry in someway. Surely the government at somepoint has got to clock that a crack open the smelling salts?

horseandcart October 7, 2008 7:57 PM

GeeTee40, the SMMT state "Over 850,000 people are employed by the motor industry", for what it's worth, but that figure of 1 in 7 would definitely apply to Germany with over three times UK vehicle output and much greater value-added depth. That's why their makers' body(VDA), environmnent minister, trade unions et al are so against the 120g CO2 2012 decree by the EU.

I believe JLR's engines are made by Ford at Bridgend, Wales for petrols and Dagenham for the diesels. The auto boxes come from ZF, Germany I think and the manuals probably from Getrag or joint venture Getrag/Ford, again from Germany(Cologne) and Halewood, UK.

Interest rate cutting will have zero effect. The Yanks have a 2% Fed rate - negative real interest rates - yet they're on course for a 25% plus fall in car sales from 16m units in 2007 to 12m this year. It's not tax either GT40, it's simply the drying up of credit, like mortgages for housing, and the death of leasing due to collapsed residual sale values. I'm afraid like housing, car sales in last ten years were a bubble of about an extra 750,000 units, that's now burst. Expect sales of around 1.9m for 2008, 2009 and beyond, ???, all bets are off if banks collapse!

Geetee40 October 8, 2008 9:26 AM

horseandcart, I agree and was just trying to over simplify things and try and make our daily lives a bit easier :O)

The current announcement by Ferrari on the California reminds me when I was working in Turkey back in 2001 when their recession kicked in badly. The only car maker to actually increase sales during that time... Ferrari

horseandcart October 8, 2008 11:20 AM

Ferrari, although superb engineered products, are magnets for "euro-trash", nouveau riche riff-raff, and hence will always make sales when there's surplus funny money sloshing around. As someone has already mentioned elsewhere a lot of the orders for the till 2011 sold out California will be speculators hoping to sell their order on above the list price, however carefully Ferrari vets the list. I believe this time the circumstances are different and all 'assets' will collapse in value, including £100k plus toys, with only food, water, energy, shelter and the most basic mobility being truly demanded for the foreseeable future.

theop October 15, 2008 6:12 PM

Ferrari have that market niche where economic cycles do not matter as much.

If you are a Russian worth £20bn and you lose half of it in 1 month because of whats currently happening, that does not mean you suddenly start to economise by saving 100k NOT buying the Aston or Fezza... Its irrelevent for them, and for Oil involved arabs and their greek shipping caddies. These people maintain trophy girlfriends whose spending habits involve casual Tuesday mornings in Harvey Nicks spending £35k in under 2 hrs in a flipping department store! These are real numbers by real people who live in London and drive Ferraris, most of whom could  coin toss a premiership foootballers net worth for fun (Kerry Packer line almost)...

I know some greek guy who plays friendly Poker with 4-5 similar mates/(any other word here) once a month with a total table worth of a couple of hundred k... Do you guys think he cares how much a Ferrari California is worth? His only problem is to get one soon enough before its old news...

Ferrari and other Exotica like PZonda occupy this market  (indeed populated by nouveau riche riff-raff) and whether we like it or not they rely on people like that ( I would publicly claim never to want to own a Ferrari because of that factor alone, but I d be lying) and all the better for them as other premium & more common marques like Audi/BMW/Porsche are about to find out what the next 3 years would really do to them....

Very expensive stuff operate in different economic planes (curves of indifference actually). Always had. They still follow general market direction with a lead or lag depending on product, but are not dependent on it.

Expensive exotica that is fashionable will perish less. Rarity and individualism count more now than ever before.

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