Wed
Apr 22 2009

The residual effect of scrappage

Matt Rigby
So the government, in yet another astonishingly ham-fisted policy bungle, has managed to mess up the golden opportunity of a ‘scrappage’ trade-in incentive scheme.

UK gets car scrappage scheme

Scrappage 'compromise' attacked

In asking the car makers to stump up half the cash themselves, and for all cars in their ranges, Darling has not only wiped out the bulk of the profit margin on most small cars, he has also almost certainly dealt a body blow to the residual values of the most sought-after small cars.



With small cars becoming ever more popular, the residual values of cars like the Mini, Fiat 500 and Toyota Aygo have been becoming ever stronger. This is largely because they are almost impossible to get a discount on.

If BMW, Toyota or Fiat signs up to the scrappage scheme, they will be obliged to offer these cars at a £2k discount. And that’s only going to do one thing to the value of used examples.

Of course, there’s always a silver lining to such things and that's the fact that this might finally push down the values of nearly-new cars. So if you happen to be in the market for a nearly-new car over the next few months, chances are there are going to be a lot of good deals around.

Blog: Scrappage: it's £1k, not £2k

Blog: German makers scrap over scrappage

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About Matt Rigby

Sold his beloved Nissan 200SX in order to afford to work here. Also has a masters degree in automotive journalism, so he's better qualified than the rest of us combined.

Comments

RobotBoogie April 22, 2009 3:30 PM

I'm not sure you are right, Matt. From a Government POV, the objective is to get people who have seen the £2K off a new car headlines back into showrooms waving their cheque books. Seems like they might have found a way to do this at half the cost to the country that a fully funded scheme would have done. Additionally, any such scheme was going to knock onto RVs. It's unavoidable.

superheater April 22, 2009 5:09 PM

Why worry about residuals?  When we buy a car we know it will go down in value to a greater or lesser extent over our period of ownership.  We have to budget for this, it starts the day we buy our first car!

TegTypeR April 22, 2009 5:18 PM

So, we are going to have to rely on the manufacturers signing up to this scheme then?

I'll be interested to see who signs up.

sierra April 23, 2009 9:43 AM

Only people to gain from this - scrap metal merchants! Limited capacity - no demand for scrap metal - cost to dealers of scrapping cars will sky-rocket

GaryW April 23, 2009 10:33 AM

Am I the only one who fumes at the "green" label attached to this buy Darling?  Scrapping a serviceable 10 year old, catalyst-equipped car and building a brand new car with all of the pollution that generates...  But he just can't help himself:  green taxes, green scrappage, green P45 (for him and Gordon hopefully)

SC00BYD00 April 23, 2009 10:51 AM

Surely the general thing that has been overlooked is, people in the market for Brand New cars generally dont keep their old one until it's over 10 years old, they swap every 3 or 4 years, £2000 aint going to affect them.  

Absolutely everyone that I know who has a car more than 10 years old is at best in the market for a newer second-hand model maybe 3 to 5 years old, not new... so will this really have a big affect.  

And half the scrappage money coming from the manufacturers just means that they will not be able to offer a "haggle" discount that they normally hold in reserve to do the deal.

superheater April 23, 2009 12:38 PM

GaryW......not you are not the only one fuming!  Most of us are livid that we are helping to finance a new car for someone else, and the 'green' issue/excuses are just a joke.  As you say, they all need their P45s, ASAP  (should have had them years ago really).

Peter Cavellini April 23, 2009 12:41 PM

How is this going to help!?

Most cars here are exported,most cars sold here are European in origin, most people in tis country buy foreign, there are no British mass producers of cars,so the money goes across the Channel to Europe in the increased sales, yes it may keep the factories open here but its only a sticking plaster solution.A final thought,is there an EU law on discrimination against younger cars?,wouldn't people with say four year old cars feel discriminated against?, no of course there is'nt,who in Brussels would come up with a law like that????!!!,makes you wondre though,EH!  

NobbyUK April 23, 2009 1:44 PM

Most manufacturers are going to have to untangle the 'offer' here before they know if they can make it work. Easier decision for the likes of Citroen and Ford who are quite used to chopping at least £2000 from anything they sell, and arguably for the upmarket Germans who also have plenty of sleeve in their prices.

But the likes of Mazda and Honda don't have £1000 to spare in their smaller cars, partly down to Yen appreciation and partly to running tight margins anyway - Jazz and Insight are currently sold at a loss in the UK.

So it's the arguably less responsible and responsive 'give-away' merchants that will benefit, the dealers will have to shoulder the admin & the responsibility of scrapping decent runners, and - just as used car residual values were recovering (essential to know when factoring in the real lifetime cost of a new car or finance scheme) - expect the market to be muddied by these '£2k' savings on new cars.

This was a good concept to start with, it certainly grabbed the '£2k support' headlines today, but this compromised scheme is in danger of being a bit of a beggar's muddle when it finally starts.

Casanova April 23, 2009 5:12 PM

So not only am I funding other people's brand new cars, but I'm going to be taking a hit on the residual values of my car too?  Thanks Gordon!

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